569
FXUS65 KREV 171011
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
211 AM PST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
* VALLEY INVERSIONS AND AREAS OF FOG RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
* LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
* AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND SNOW THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A BLANKET OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER
THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK, LIMITING SMOKE DISPERSION FOR
ANY PLANNED PILE BURNS AND ALLOWING POLLUTANTS TO BUILD NEAR
URBAN AREAS. WITH A SET UP LIKE THIS WHERE WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, FREEZING FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS IS ALSO LIKELY TO
FORM IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, BUCKLE UP! IT'S ALL ABOARD THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TRAIN! THE GEFS IVT PLUMES SHOW A FIRE HOSE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING OUR WAY FROM SATURDAY THE 21ST ALL THE WAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY THE 27TH. GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE
CONFIRMING THIS ACTIVE PERIOD AS WELL, SHOWING A RATHER ROBUST
ANOMALY OF LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE AXIS OF THIS AR WILL BE AIMED AT THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO KEEP US WET WITH A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW
FOR THE SIERRA.
ALSO, THE LATITUDINAL POSITIONING OF THIS AR MOISTURE (CENTERED
AROUND 43N) WOULD FAVOR WARMER STORMS HITTING THE SIERRA, SO IT'S
LIKELY WE'LL SEE SOME MORE HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AT LEAST FOR RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND EURO ARE SHOWING THE FIRST STORM
REACHING THE SIERRA ON SATURDAY. A VERY EARLY LOOK INTO 700MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE AROUND -2C, WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
SNOW LEVELS ANYWHERE AROUND 7000-9000 FEET. ONE THING THAT DOESN'T
HAPPEN OFTEN THAT WE ARE SEEING, IS THE GFS AND EURO DETERMINISTIC
MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, WE'LL WAIT MORE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK TO GET INTO SPECIFIC TIMING, LOCATION, AMOUNTS, ETC.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
30%/70% CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPING IN NORTHERN SIERRA
VALLEYS INCLUDING KTRK THIS MORNING/WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS THIS WEEK.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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