909
FXUS65 KREV 172201
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
201 PM PST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
* VALLEY INVERSIONS AND AREAS OF FOG RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
* LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
* AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, SNOW, AND TRAVEL IMPACTS
THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ALONG I-80 NEAR TRUCKEE AND THE MARTIS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG, BUT AT A LOWER CONFIDENCE (20-40% CHANCE),
MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUSANVILLE/HONEY LAKE BASIN, SMOKE CREEK/BLACK
ROCK DESERTS, THE CARSON SINK NEAR FALLON, AND THE SIERRA VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE FOG THE INVERSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT
SMOKE DISPERSION FOR THE PLANNED PILE BURNS AND ALLOW POLLUTANTS
TO BUILD UP IN URBAN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ARE AT A LOW/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, IN VALLEYS WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES. AREAS
IN THE SIERRA AND NV MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS COULD APPROACH
60.
FOR PEAK HOLIDAY TRAVEL LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS, SIMULATIONS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SERIES OF STORMS FUELED BY ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
MOISTURE IMPACTING THE WESTERN US. WHILE THE MAIN STORM TRACK AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS DIRECTED AT WASHINGTON AND OREGON, THERE
ARE PERIODS OF WINDS/RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. PLAN ON IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY
TRAVEL/RECREATION AND BUMPY FLIGHTS IN/OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN AND
SNOW CHANCES ARE LOWER OVERALL FROM US-395 IN MONO COUNTY EASTWARD
TO LYON/MINERAL COUNTIES.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
(7000-9000 FT SNOW LEVEL). SIGNIFICANT SNOW CHANCES ARE VERY LOW
(5-10%) AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS, BUT RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY APPROACH 1 INCH FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD TO
LASSEN COUNTY. RAIN AND WET ROADS CAN BE JUST AS IMPACTFUL TO
TRAVEL AS SNOW DURING PEAK TRAVEL TIMES.
A STRONGER STORM MAY PASS THROUGH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV ON
DEC 23-24 WITH RAIN/SNOW LINES DIPPING BELOW 5000-6000 FEET
CHRISTMAS EVE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER, 40-60%
CHANCE OF MORE THAN 12 INCHES IN THE SIERRA. BRONG
AVIATION
LIGHT WINDS WITH VALLEY INVERSIONS MAY HELP AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
TO RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR KTRK.
THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR FREEZING FOG OR A VERY LOW CLOUD
DECK DEVELOPS NEAR KSVE AND KNFL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AM. BRONG
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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