941
FXUS65 KREV 181014
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 AM PST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
* VALLEY INVERSIONS AND AREAS OF FOG RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
* LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
* AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS THIS SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, SNOW, AND TRAVEL IMPACTS
THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FREEZING FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS AND AT KTRK HAS
DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK,
LIMITING SMOKE DISPERSION FOR ANY PLANNED PILE BURNS AND ALLOWING
POLLUTANTS TO BUILD NEAR URBAN AREAS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE GEFS IVT PLUMES SHOW A STREAM OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING OUR WAY FROM SATURDAY THE 21ST ALL THE WAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY THE 27TH. GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE STILL
CONFIRMING THIS ACTIVE PERIOD, SHOWING A ROBUST ANOMALY OF LOWER
500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE AXIS OF
THIS AR WILL BE AIMED AT THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CA, PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO KEEP US
WET. CPC ALSO HAS THE SIERRA UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW
FROM THE 25TH - 31ST.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SHOWING THE FIRST STORM REACHING THE SIERRA
THIS SATURDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY HAVE TRENDED COOLER,
AROUND -4C, WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO SNOW LEVELS 6000-8000 FEET. AT
LEAST FOR THIS FIRST SYSTEM IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE'LL JUST SEE A
COUPLE INCHES ALONG THE CREST WITH IT BEING A WARMER SYSTEM. OUR
NEXT BIG MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE ON TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE), WITH
THAT STORM LOOKING TO HAVE MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH
A DEEPER TROUGH. WINDS ALOFT AT 700MB AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
STRONG FOR BOTH STORMS, THOUGH TUESDAY'S WINDS MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER. MORE DETAILS TO IRON OUT STILL, SO STAY TUNED IN THE
UPCOMING DAYS, BUT SO FAR THE BEST TIME TO TRAVEL FOR THE
HOLIDAYS IS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
FREEZING FOG HAS ALREADY REDEVELOPED IN NORTHERN SIERRA VALLEYS
INCLUDING KTRK THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE
FOR FREEZING FOG OR A VERY LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING NEAR KSVE
THIS MORNING. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS A 70% OR
GREATER CHANCE FOR FREEZING FOG NEAR KSVE/KTRK AND 30% AT
KNFL/KLOL. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS, VALLEY INVERSIONS, AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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