701
FXUS65 KREV 190930
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
130 AM PST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
* VALLEY INVERSIONS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ALSO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.
* AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS THIS SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, SNOW, AND TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
WEEK. RIGHT NOW, MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TRAVEL DAY LEADING
UP TO CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. FREEZING FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS AND OVER LAKE TAHOE
HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY RETURN AGAIN
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS LIKE TAHOE CITY, INCLINE VILLAGE,
AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE MAY SEE AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AM, LIMITING MIXING AND
CAUSING SOME HAZINESS IN THE AFTERNOONS. INVERSIONS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN FRIDAY PM WITH S/SW WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER THE
RIDGES. SOME SIERRA VALLEYS MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT, WITH LOWER W NV
VALLEYS FOLLOWING SUIT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
THIS WEEKEND, WE'RE GOING TO BE IN THE CROSSHAIRS OF A STREAM OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE. THE CENTER OF THIS AR MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE AROUND THE SOUTHERN CASCADES(43N), HOWEVER WE'RE STILL
FORECASTED TO RECEIVE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER
MULTIPLE WAVES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THE GFS AND EURO ARE
SHOWING THE FIRST STORM REACHING THE SIERRA SATURDAY MORNING.
700MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WOULD SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS AROUND
6500-8000 FEET. AT LEAST FOR THIS FIRST SYSTEM, IT'S LOOKING LIKE
WE'LL JUST SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE CREST WITH VERY
LIMITED SPILLOVER INTO RENO/CARSON/MINDEN. WE MAY GET 1-2 SMALL
WAVES ON SUNDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AT
THIS POINT WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ACROSS NE CA.
OUR NEXT BIG MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE ON TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE), IN
WHICH THAT STORM LOOKS TO HAVE A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH A DEEPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH. WINDS ALOFT AT 700MB AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE STRONG FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH
TUESDAY'S WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER. WITH 700MB WINDS
APPROACHING 60 KTS, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SAW AT LEAST A 2-4
HR WINDOW WHERE SURFACE GUSTS EXCEED 50 MPH WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
WITH THIS STORM WE WILL SEE A COUPLE FEET OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A
COUPLE TENTHS OF VALLEY RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000-7000
FEET. AFTER TUESDAY, ENSEMBLES KEEP THE STORM DOOR OPEN FOR A FEW
MORE DAYS AFTER THE 25TH. THEN TO START THE NEW YEAR OFF IT LOOKS
PROMISING THAT WE'LL HAVE A RIDGE SITTING OVER US AGAIN!
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
FREEZING FOG HAS REDEVELOPED IN NORTHERN SIERRA VALLEYS INCLUDING
KTRK THIS MORNING, AND HAS A 70% CHANCE OF RETURNING TONIGHT. A
VERY LOW CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE TAHOE (IFR) HAS EXPANDED OVER KTVL
AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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