026
FXUS65 KREV 192140
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 PM PST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
* VALLEY INVERSIONS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ALSO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.
* AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS THIS SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, SNOW, AND TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
WEEK. RIGHT NOW, MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TRAVEL DAY LEADING
UP TO CHRISTMAS.
* A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH MORE
VALLEY RAIN, SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT AND GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
INVERSIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO LEAVE THE AREA TOMORROW. THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE FREEZING FOG IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER SIERRA
VALLEYS INCLUDING TRUCKEE AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE. HOWEVER, FOG
SHOULD BE MORE PATCHY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG DUE TO WINDS
ALOFT INCREASING VERY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. INVERSIONS WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND AS WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES PASSING THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA, THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
STARTING TO LOOK DRIER AND WARMER THAN INITIALLY OBSERVED. IN
OTHER WORDS, WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 7000 FT.
SO, SNOW SHOWERS AND SLICK/ICY ROADS WILL BE RESTRICTED MOSTLY TO
SIERRA PASSES AND NEAR THE CREST. THE CHANCES FOR EXCEEDING 4
INCHES OF SNOW IS 10-20% AROUND LAKE LEVEL AND 30-60% AT THE
CREST. OTHERWISE, SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 7000
FT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES IN WESTERN NV AND UP TO
0.10-0.50 INCHES IN NE CA AND THE SIERRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE 700 MB WINDS ARE AROUND 40-60 KTS RESULTING IN GUSTS AT THE
CREST ABOVE 70 MPH. MEANWHILE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WINDS WILL BE
IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. WIND PRONE AREAS MAY HAVE WINDS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH WITH A 10-30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THOSE VALUES. WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WESTERN NV, ESPECIALLY THE SIERRA
FRONT ON SATURDAY. WE MAY NEED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE). MORE
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 6000-7000 FT. ENSEMBLE MODELS
KEEP MEANDERING WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
TREND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DECENT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW
AT THE CREST WITH A 10-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THAT THRESHOLD. AND
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES (1-2") AT LAKE LEVEL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER WESTERN NV ARE UP TO 0.2-0.4 INCHES. HOWEVER, TAKE THIS WITH
A GRAIN OF SALT AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING A LOT UNTIL THE ACTUAL
DAY OF THE EVENT. ANOTHER HAZARD EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND PRONE AREAS AGAIN COULD BE
SEEING GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH.
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MORE WAVES BRINGING MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
-CRESPO
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SOME SLANTWISE VIS REDUCTIONS DURING
APPROACH DUE TO STRONG INVERSIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ALSO,
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN DUE TO FG AT KTRK EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VRB. HOWEVER, WINDS START TO INCREASE ALOFT AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LLWS AND TURBULENCE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
-CRESPO
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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