902
FXUS65 KREV 201101
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
301 AM PST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
* VALLEY INVERSIONS AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG LINGER THROUGH THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY.
* A QUICK-MOVING STORM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
* A STRONGER STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS EVE, LIKELY
IMPACTING HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY IN A SERIES THAT FEATURES DRY, QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS BEFORE WE ENTER A STRETCH OF MUCH MORE STORMY, UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO WRAP UP 2024. RESIDUAL INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY YIELD
ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG FOR THE HONEY LAKE
BASIN, SMOKE CREEK/BLACK ROCK DESERTS, THE MARTIS VALLEY, AND THE
TAHOE BASIN BEFORE MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
OUR INCIPIENT STORM ARRIVES ON SATURDAY, PROVIDING LIGHT RAIN, HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE LATTER APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST IMPACTFUL AS SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS APPROACH 35-45 MPH
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND THE SIERRA FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 90 MPH ALONG
EXPOSED SIERRA RIDGETOPS. BE PREPARED FOR IMPACTS TO RECREATION
AND BUMPY FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF REGIONAL AIRPORTS. RAIN AND SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE MEAGER WITH THIS STORM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
OF ONLY 1-4" CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000-7500 FEET BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. STILL, THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK ROADS AND TRAVEL DELAYS FOR
SIERRA PASSES THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT RAIN OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
WE'RE STILL ON TRACK FOR A STRONGER STORM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE), BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVIER MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSORS.
HOWEVER, RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD QUITE
CONSIDERABLY IN LATEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THIS STORM WILL PROVIDE HEAVY SNOW TO SIERRA PASSES, WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TRAVEL DELAYS LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY WINDS WILL YIELD MORE TURBULENT FLIGHTS
TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE DETERMINED WITH THIS STORM AS
GUIDANCE WAVERS, BUT THE KEY TAKEAWAY IS THIS: DO YOUR HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ON MONDAY, AND BE PREPARED FOR SLICK ROADS AND SLOWDOWNS
IN/ACROSS THE SIERRA IF YOU MUST TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
ON A BRIGHTER NOTE, THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE (>40%) THAT MOST SIERRA
RESIDENTS WAKE UP TO A WHITE CHRISTMAS. THOSE OF YOU IN THE GREATER
RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREA, WELL, YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO KEEP DREAMING.
-SALAS
AVIATION
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT TODAY WILL BE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KTRK/KTVL UNTIL AROUND 18Z DUE TO FZFG. KRNO/KCXP/KMEV MAY SEE
REDUCED SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZY SKIES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AN
APPROACHING STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LLWS AND TURBULENCE
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO REGIONAL
TERMINALS OVER THE WEEKEND.
BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM THE WIND SATURDAY AS LATEST CAMS
SHOW A POTENTIAL CRITICAL LAYER DEVELOPING NEAR THE TAHOE BASIN
AND ALONG THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW WHERE
GUSTS COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 40 KTS (70% CHANCE) BETWEEN
16Z-22Z IN THESE AREAS.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page