697
FXUS65 KREV 161527 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
727 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
UPDATE
SNOW IN THE TAHOE BASIN
BAND OF SNOW IS OUTPERFORMING ALL MODEL METRICS THIS MORNING WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OBSERVED ALONG I-80 WITH BAND SLIDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE TAHOE AREA THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY
AND DISORGANIZED AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, BUT NOT UNTIL 1-4" OF
SNOW FALL ON AREA ROADS. ROADS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT COMMENCES LATER THIS MORNING
AS THE BAND WEAKENS. ALSO, ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AT KTRK AND IS LIKELY AT KTVL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON.
HOHMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 148 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2025/
SYNOPSIS...
* A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH
INCREASED BREEZES TODAY.
* ANOTHER MODEST STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* OTHERWISE, DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR MID-FEBRUARY AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION...
WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING IN NORTHEAST CA AND
WESTERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
WORK THEIR WAY FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. WE'LL SEE ABOUT A 50-60%
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FROM TAHOE
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEAST CA ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT, WITH A 90%
CHANCE OF LESS THAN 1" EXPECTED. EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
THIS MORNING BEFORE 10 AM FROM CEDARVILLE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
MINDEN. THESE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CREST IN
MONO COUNTY, BUT THE PROBABILITIES DROP OFF TO AROUND 10-15%.
WE'LL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THIS, WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
MORE OF THE SAME STORY ON MONDAY, ONLY THIS TIME THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE CONTAINED TO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY AND SURPRISE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 AND LOWS NEAR 30 FOR LOWER VALLEYS AND A JUST
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FOR COMMUNITIES IN THE SIERRA.
AFTER A QUIET AND SUNNY TUESDAY, WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL LOW COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
CURRENT SPREAD IS ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SUB-ADVISORY SNOW
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND 0 TO 0.10" OF RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA. THIS STORM TRACK STILL SHOWS SOME VARIANCE AMONG THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, SO THESE PRECIP/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST
IS PROJECTED TO BUILD INTO CA-NV. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS LIMITING THE
WARMING TREND INITIALLY, BUT THEN HIGHS COULD MAKE A RUN FOR 60
DEGREES FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS WITH LOWER 50S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES BY NEXT SATURDAY.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION...
KTRK AND KTVL WILL SEE FZFG AND ACCOMPANYING LIFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 17Z. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS (90% CHANCE TRACE) WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KTRK/KTVL. A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
KRNO/KCXP/KMEV WITH BRIEF MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS FROM 15-20Z.
WE'LL SEE WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KT FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ROUGHLY 4Z TONIGHT. FL100 WINDS WILL
PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 50 KT OUT OF THE WEST, INCREASING
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LLWS.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY CAZ072.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
CAZ072.
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