429
FXUS65 KREV 162135
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER MONDAY.
* ANOTHER MODEST STORM WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS WITH
ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
* OTHERWISE, DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR MID-FEBRUARY AVERAGES, THEN WARMING UP NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING'S "BONUS SNOW" PRODUCED 1-4" OF ACCUMULATION AND
SLICK ROADS ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN EARLIER TODAY, BUT THIS SNOW
AREA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH CHOPPY WATERS ON LAKE TAHOE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH MIXING DOWN INTO FAR
WESTERN NV. ANOTHER ROUND OF PM BREEZES (ALTHOUGH LOWER WIND
SPEEDS COMPARED TO TODAY) IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW, BRINGING ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS PRODUCING AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1" TO AREAS NEAR THE OR
BORDER.
AFTER A QUIET AND DRY TUESDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD, WE'LL HAVE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE
ACROSS CA-NV ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE PRODUCES UP TO
0.50" OF LIQUID PRECIP NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE, WHICH
WOULD TRANSLATE TO 2-6" OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET, AND UP TO 2" DOWN
TO LAKE LEVEL AND SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN MONO COUNTY. THE LATEST
TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN/SNOW
OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON (SNOW LEVELS MAINLY
6000-6500 FEET), WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS WINDING DOWN IN WEST
CENTRAL NV AND NORTHEAST CA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE OF A RAIN SHADOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN NV WITH
ONLY SPARSE LIQUID AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.05"), BUT THIS WOULD LEAD
TO INCREASED WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WITH 45+ MPH FOR WIND PRONE
AREAS, AND SIERRA RIDGE GUST POTENTIAL OF 80+ MPH.
FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST
IS PROJECTED TO BUILD INTO CA-NV. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AM VALLEY INVERSIONS LIMITING THE
WARMING TREND INITIALLY, BUT THEN HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO WARM UP NEXT
WEEKEND, REACHING THE MID 60S FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND 50S FOR
SIERRA COMMUNITIES BY NEXT SUNDAY. MJD
AVIATION
AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND LLWS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH
08Z FOR AREA TERMINALS, WITH SURFACE GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT BUT A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 35 KT FOR THE TERMINALS NEAR US-395 AND SIERRA
RIDGE TOP/FL100 WIND GUSTS TO 65 KT. THESE WINDS WILL EASE UP
OVERNIGHT AND THINNER CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW PATCHY FZFG FORMATION
AT KTRK (20-30% PROBABILITY) FROM 12-16Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF W-NW BREEZES (SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR MAIN
TERMINALS AND FL100 GUSTS TO 50 KT), IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EARLY EVENING (20-03Z) WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE.
THEN LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF AVIATION-RELATED WIND AND PRECIP IMPACTS IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH INCREASING MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE
AND LLWS. MOST OF THE PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO KTRK-KTVL BETWEEN 16-22Z. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ072.
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