914
FXUS65 KREV 172053
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1253 PM PST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
* DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
* LIGHT SIERRA SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FROM A FAST-MOVING
STORM, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS FOR WESTERN NEVADA
VALLEYS.
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, BRINGING
WARMER, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK FAST MOVING AND THIS HAS NOT CHANGED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US?
EXPECT A ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINIMAL
SNOWFALL, FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE TAHOE BASIN INTO NE CA WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE MOST LIKELY. EVEN THE WETTER GUIDANCE
(90TH PERCENTILE) ONLY SHOWS UPWARDS TO 4-8" ALONG THE CREST AND A
COUPLE OF INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL. STILL, WE COULD SEE SLICK ROADS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE THROUGH THE TAHOE
REGION. FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY (INCLUDING THE MAMMOTH
AREA), SNOW AMOUNTS TAPER TO TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE AN INCH ALONG
THE CREST WITH MUCH OF W NV SHADOWED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR VALLEY AREAS, AS 700 MB FLOW
INCREASES TO 40-50 KTS AND THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS W NV.
SW-W WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND WINDPRONE
AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SPREAD TO ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH COMMON, BUT LOCALLY 50+ MPH IN THE WINDPRONE
LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD PAY PARTICULAR
ATTENTION ALONG HWY 395/I-580 AS WELL AS HWY 95 NEAR WALKER LAKE.
THIS STORM WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING
EARLY IN THE EVENING. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE, THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE
SIERRA RIDGES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LOOKING AT RIDGE GUSTS TO 60+ MPH
WITH EAST BREEZES AND CHOP POSSIBLE ON LAKE TAHOE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING A SNEAK PREVIEW OF SPRING WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
PUSHING MID 50S TO MID 60S, OR 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY.
HOHMANN
AVIATION
* WESTERLY FL100 WINDS 20-25 KTS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT TURBULENCE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS THEN DECREASE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AT KTRK 08-17Z (40-50%
CHANCE).
* A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT FOR THE TAHOE
BASIN INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NE CA WEDNESDAY (MAINLY 18Z WED TO
02Z THU). SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR KTVL/KTRK ARE UNLIKELY BUT
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER COULD PUT DOWN
A BRIEF SLUSHY 1-2". VFR AT OTHER AIRPORTS.
* SOUTHWEST FL100 WINDS INCREASE EARLY WED AM AND PEAK AROUND
40-50 KTS LATE MORNING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, SHIFTING TO
THE W-NW DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODERATE TURBULENCE
AND LLWS ARE GOOD BETS WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-25 KTS /GUSTS 30-35 KTS/ FOR AREA TERMINALS.
HOHMANN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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