972
FXUS65 KREV 182054
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1254 PM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
* LIGHT SIERRA SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT.
* COOLER WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA RIDGES ON
THURSDAY.
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, BRINGING
WARMER, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE IN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES TO LOOK FAST WITH
LIMITED PRECIPITATION (MAINLY FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD). STILL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY W/SW WINDS. MAIN CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TAHOE/PYRAMID LAKE ON
WEDNESDAY.
* LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A RIDGE OVER CA-NV WITH QUITE A
BIT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH SITUATED NEAR 140W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA 18-21Z WITH SOME SPILLOVER ACROSS
NE CA/FAR NW NV BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF W NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA OF MONO COUNTY WILL
REMAIN SHADOWED. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER, RANGING FROM
0.10-0.25" ALONG THE SIERRA CREST NORTH OF ECHO SUMMIT AND THESE
NUMBERS ARE ALREADY TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE WITH
ROOM FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE DRIER. SUFFICE IT TO SAY, SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF INCHES, AND BEING THAT
MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL DURING THE DAY, IMPACTS TO AREA ROADS
WILL BE LIMITED TO BRIEF PERIODS OF SLUSH ACROSS THE HIGHER
PASSES SHOULD A HEAVIER SHOWER OCCUR.
* WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT AS A 125+ KT UPPER JET
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION 18-21Z. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO EXCEED 80 MPH. DECENT MIXING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND INCREASING DAYTIME THERMAL GRADIENTS
ACROSS W NV WILL RESULT IN ROUGH LAKE WATERS AND BUMPY AIRPLANE
RIDES. STRONG CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG HWY 395/I-580 WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS PUSHING OUT
INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON, IMPACTING AREA
HIGHWAYS INCLUDING HWY 95 NEAR WALKER LAKE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SUN SETS, BUT WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY
ACROSS THE RIDGES AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY,
* HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUN-TUE.
ECMWF EFI SHOWS A STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR SOME W NV VALLEYS AND
MID 50S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF FEBRUARY UNDER ANOMALOUSLY WARM HEIGHTS.
SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES START TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM
EARLY MARCH, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF SYSTEMS
IS VERY LOW AS THE HEIGHT ANOMALY SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UNDERCUTTING OF THE RIDGE.
HOHMANN
AVIATION
* VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
PERIOD.
* FAST MOVING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN BETWEEN 18-02Z AT
KTRK/KTVL WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION UNLIKELY. OTHER TERMINALS TO
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING KRNO-KCXP-
KMEV.
* WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE RIDGES BEGINNING AROUND 12Z,
PEAKING 18-21Z AROUND 45-50 KTS AND THEN TURNING WSW AS THE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY SEVERE TURBULENCE, ESPECIALLY FOR
SMALLER AIRCRAFT. LLWS AND ROTORS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH WSW
SURFACE WINDS 15-25 KTS /GUSTS 30-35 KTS/.
HOHMANN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY NVZ004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY CAZ072.
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