102
FXUS65 KREV 192226
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
226 PM PST WED FEB 19 2025
* A QUICK MOVING LOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA TODAY. GUSTY WINDS FOR WESTERN
NEVADA EXPECT TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS EVENING.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY EAST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
RIDGES ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY.
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, BRINGING
WARMER, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER
AIR LOW MOVING INTO WA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE AHEAD OF IT
JUST EAST OF THE CWA. THE LATEST RADAR RETURNS ALONG WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONGOING
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO IN LASSEN, PLUMAS, AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE
UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD WHILE STAYING NORTH OF THE CWA
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND THEN PLACING THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR PYRAMID AND TAHOE LAKES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SEES WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 40-45 MPH WITH THE RIDGES SEEING GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 80 MPH. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH,
CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES PERSIST GENERALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
US-50 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS BEING
5500-6000 FT THIS AFTERNOON, THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHEST PEAKS SEE AROUND A 25-50% CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE BY 4 PM. PRECIPITATION TYPE
FOR THE LOWER AREAS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH QPF VALUES
RANGING AROUND 0.1 INCHES OR LESS.
FOR TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECT TO COOL TO BETWEEN THE
LOWER TEENS AND THE LOWER 20S IN THE SIERRA COMMUNITIES WHILE THE
VALLEY AREAS HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S RANGE.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THEY LOOK TO TAPER OFF FOR MOST OF THE
CWA BY MIDNIGHT WITH EASTERN PERSHING COUNTY SEEING CHANCES CONTINUE
FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE NEW DAY. SNOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY TOMORROW IN WESTERN NV LOOK TO DROP TO 5000-5500 FT, SO LIGHT
SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN SHOULD PRECIPITATION OCCUR. ROADS AND
SURFACES ALSO COULD BE A SLICK OVERNIGHT WITH THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION, SO PLEASE USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO TODAY'S HIGH
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. WHILE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THURSDAY, THE RIDGES STILL CAN SEE SOME BREEZY GUSTS UP TO AROUND
50 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW NIGHT
EXPECT TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TONIGHT'S LOWS AS AREA
TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER AIR RIDGE MOVING OVER THE CWA ON
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY, AND THEN
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH
THIS PATTERN ALOFT, TEMPERATURES TAKE A WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAY EVEN SEE APRIL-LIKE TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY. THE RENO AREA SEES A 50-70% NBM PROBABILITY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES 65 DEGREES OR HIGHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LIKE FALLON SEE 60-80% CHANCE OF 70
DEGREES. WHILE THE REGION LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY, SATURDAY SHOWS
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE OR BORDER WITH
THE SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. -078
AVIATION
* A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY
NORTH OF US-50. A 30-50% CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN CONTINUES THROUGH
06Z AT KTRK/KTVL WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION UNLIKELY. OTHER
TERMINALS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REACHING KRNO-KCXP-KMEV IN THE EVENING (03-07Z). DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR TOMORROW.
* WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 45-50 KTS EXPECT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE BEFORE WINDS
START TO DECREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LLWS ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY SEVERE TURBULENCE REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY
WITHIN THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR SMALLER AIRCRAFT. FOR TOMORROW,
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL
TERMINALS WITH SOME INCREASED GUSTS SEEN AT THE RIDGES.
-FUENTES/078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ072.
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