601
FXUS65 KREV 162000
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
100 PM PDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NV.
* A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY WITH
A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA.
* FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH NORTH BREEZES, BEFORE SOME
WARMING RETURNS EASTER WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
ISOLATED T-STORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE SIERRA AND INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF WESTERN NV-NORTHEAST CA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND THE RESULTING CAP ON DAYTIME
HEATING HAS LIMITED THE STORM COVERAGE SO FAR.
AS WE GET TO THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING, OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS IN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER IS THINNER COULD ALLOW
ADDITIONAL PULSE-TYPE CELLS TO REDEVELOP, BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE (20-30%) FOR STORMS APPEARS TO
FAVOR MONO, MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES, DECREASING TO
10-20% CHANCES AND SPARSE COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TAHOE
BASIN, RENO-CARSON VICINITY AND NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV. THE
MAIN EFFECTS OF TODAY'S STRONGER STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH.
FOR LATE TONIGHT-THURSDAY, THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL
WEAKEN WHILE A SEPARATE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN, ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THE RESULTING
EFFECT OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY GRADIENT-
DRIVEN NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST NV DURING THE
OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING (WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON PYRAMID LAKE),
THEN SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NV DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE US-95
CORRIDOR WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 30-40 MPH,
WHILE CHANNELED WINDS IN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS OF MINERAL
COUNTY COULD PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP
BRISK NORTH WINDS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
WEST CENTRAL NV. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS DIPPING TO NEAR 60
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS BY FRIDAY.
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THURSDAY, EXCEPT NEAR THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY,
WHERE INCREASED TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND ABOUT 10% CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. DRY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY.
FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND, WE'LL SEE FLAT RIDGING RETURN TO CA-NV,
LEADING TO A WARMER AND DRIER TREND ALTHOUGH A MAJOR WARMUP ISN'T
LIKELY. HIGHS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE LOWER-MID 70S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY, WITH LOWER-MID 60S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES
AND AREAS NEAR THE OR BORDER, THEN HOLD NEAR THESE LEVELS FOR
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH ZEPHYR-TYPE WEST BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY AFFECT THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED BREEZES AND LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES (UP TO 10%) NEXT
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY.
MJD
AVIATION
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR SIERRA
TERMINALS THRU 02Z, THEN EXTEND INTO FAR WESTERN NV UNTIL 03-04Z.
WHILE CIGS/VIS REDUCTIONS WILL DEPEND ON HAVING A CELL FORM
DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE A MORE LIKELY
RESULT WITH PEAK SPEEDS BRIEFLY UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR
STRONGER CELLS. OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION/OUTFLOW ACTIVITY,
MAINLY LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT FROM 22-04Z.
WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT FOR KRNO-KCXP-KMEV AND A LITTLE LESS FOR KTRK-KTVL.
STRONGER GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SMALLER AIRFIELDS
IN WEST CENTRAL NV ON THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH AT KMMH, W-NW WINDS
PREVAIL WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT MOST TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THURS-FRI, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT ABOUT 10-15% CHANCE OF -SHRA NEAR KMMH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY NVZ004.
CA...NONE.
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