086
FXUS65 KREV 182152
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
252 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TODAY.
* WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR EASTER WEEKEND THAT EXTENDS THE
BEGINNING OF EASTER WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
WEST BREEZES.
* GRADUAL COOLING EXPECTED TO BEGIN MID NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED
SHOWER CHANCES BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CWA WITH A GENERALLY NORTHERLY
UPPER AIR FLOW BEING BETWEEN AN UPPER AIR TROUGH TO THE EAST AND AN
UPPER AIR RIDGE TO WEST. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY REPORT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN CENTRAL NV. MODELS SHOW COOLER
AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO COME IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THESE
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS IN EASTERN MINERAL
COUNTY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 40 MPH BEFORE AREA WINDS BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT EXPECT TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
FOR EASTER WEEKEND, FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE WESTERN RIDGE TO
HAVE MOVED OVER THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OUT TO
THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY CAUSING A WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER AIR FLOW
TO MOVE IN OVER THE CWA GOING THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS
EXPECT TO BE BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY. SIERRA MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES HAVE
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. WHILE WINDS
EXPECT TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT EACH DAY, TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR
BREEZES OUT OF THE WEST CAN BE EXPECTED.
FOR MONDAY, MODELS HAVE A TROUGH PASSING BY THE NORTH OF THE CWA
CAUSING THE UPPER AIR FLOW TO TAKE A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INTERRUPTION IN THE WARMING TREND WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES FROM THOSE SEEN ON SUNDAY. BUT THE
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES BACK IN ON TUESDAY WHICH CONTINUES THE
WARMING TREND. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND FALLON SEE A
20-50% NBM PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY (THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD). FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS
THAT THERE MAY BE SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CA-NV ALLOWING FOR WESTERLY AFTERNOON BREEZES TO
PERSIST.
BUT ON WEDNESDAY AND GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES BEGIN A COOLING TREND WITH MODEL ENSEMBLES
FORECASTING A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO EACH
PREVIOUS DAY UNTIL THEY ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW APRIL'S NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE MODELS SHOW LOW CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THE BEST CHANCES (15-35%) FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE SIERRA ON FRIDAY. CURRENT QPF TOTALS
LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
UPCOMING FORECAST RUNS WITH THIS FUTURE SYSTEM. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT TO PERSIST FOR ALL REV TAF SITES TODAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KTS
CONTINUE AT MOST REV TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMMH WHICH SEES WINDS FROM A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. FOLLOWING CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LATE DAY WESTERLY BREEZES
GUSTING UP TO 15-20 KT ON SATURDAY AND UP TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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