819
FXUS65 KREV 041936
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1236 PM PDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
* DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL FOR EARLY-MID
WEEK.
* FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND, EXPECT VERY WARM
DAYS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS, AND A 5-10% CHANCE FOR LATE DAY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN MONO COUNTY AND PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL NV. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, FEWER LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE ANTICIPATED AND OUTFLOW GUSTS AREN'T LIKELY TO BE AS STRONG,
BUT COULD STILL REACH 40 MPH AT TIMES. AS THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONDITIONS MOVES INTO SOUTHERN AZ OVERNIGHT,
THE FINAL SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY WILL WIND DOWN.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, WE'LL SEE A MUCH DRIER PATTERN PREVAIL WITH
A NOTABLE WARMUP. FOR MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY START, TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 60 FOR
SIERRA COMMUNITIES. IT WILL STILL FEEL A TOUCH COOL DUE TO BREEZY
NE-E WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND SIERRA
RIDGE TOP GUSTS 40-50 MPH.
THIS WARMUP WILL ACCELERATE FROM TUESDAY-THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA/NV, WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND LOWER-MID 70S
FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS CAN BE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD, WITH A 5-10%
CHANCE FOR BRIEF LATE DAY SHOWERS/THUNDER BY THURSDAY.
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN 90 POSSIBLE
IN SOME WARMER WESTERN NV VALLEYS, RESULTING IN MINOR HEATRISK
CATEGORY. RECORD HIGHS FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS ARE 88 DEGREES IN
RENO AND ARE WITHIN REACH, WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING ABOUT
30-35% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A TIED RECORD HIGH FRIDAY AND ALMOST 60%
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY. WITH THIS INCREASED HEAT AND FINALLY A WARM
WEEKEND COMING UP FOR THE REGION, BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS AROUND RIVERS
AND STREAMS WHICH WILL BE FLOWING FASTER AND VERY COLD DUE TO
ACCELERATED SNOWMELT.
ON THESE TWO WARMEST DAYS, THERE REMAINS A SLIM (5-10%) CHANCE
FOR BRIEF LATE DAY SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM NEAR THE SIERRA CREST TO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NV. SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT AREN'T EASILY RESOLVED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING, WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING, TO FIRE UP A FEW SHORT-LIVED CELLS.
LATER NEXT WEEKEND, AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DISPLACE
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FARTHER EAST AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SW
FLOW OVER THE SIERRA WITH GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN NV BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE BACK A BIT COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MJD
AVIATION
INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT THE MAIN TERMINALS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING, ENDING BETWEEN 01-03Z. CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE
LIMITED TO ABOUT 10-20% NEAR KMMH AND 10% OR LESS AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS. THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CIGS WITH WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KT
MAY OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY, WITH SOME ENHANCED
NW-N BREEZES LINGERING INTO LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR KCXP AND
KMMH.
BY MONDAY, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MODERATE N-NE BREEZES
PRODUCING GUSTS 15-20 KT AT THE MAIN TERMINALS. LIGHTER WINDS AND
FURTHER WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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