637
FXUS65 KREV 050745
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1245 AM PDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A WARMING AND DRYING TREND KICKS OFF TODAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.
* NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED MINOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS
AND RENEWED SNOWMELT RUNOFF.
* THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ON PAUSE UNTIL A 5-10% CHANCE
RESUMES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE DREARY, COOL WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. ONLY A FEW REMNANT
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. SO TODAY WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY COOL FOR THE SEASON, BUT
THAT WON'T LAST LONG.
HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND BRINGS A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A WEAK PASSING WAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN NEVADA FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LARGELY THE SHOWER CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW (LESS THAN 5%),
BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR THOSE AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BECOME A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH CONCERNS FOR MINOR HEAT RISK, AS WELL
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE HEAT WILL ALSO ACCELERATE SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF INTO
MOUNTAIN STREAMS AND RIVERS. WATER WILL BE RUNNING FAST AND BE VERY
COLD, SO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS IF YOU'RE NEAR THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF.
THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BOOST THE STORM
POTENTIAL MARGINALLY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING FOR
AT LEAST SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A 10% CHANCE OF STORMS TO KICK
OFF ALONG THE SIERRA. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FORMIDABLE FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE, THESE STORMS WILL BE PRETTY TRANSIENT IN NATURE.
BY SUNDAY, CLUSTER ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAKING
ITS WAY TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE 19% OF THE ENSEMBLES THAT
KEEP THE TROUGH FAR OFF FROM THE COAST, SO THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
MAY BE IN QUESTION. WE CAN PLAN THAT THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WON'T BE STICKING AROUND MUCH LONGER AFTER SATURDAY
BASED ON THE BLENDED GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.
-EDAN
AVIATION
SOME -DZ ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE HANGING ON EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KMMH AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR AFTER 13Z THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO
SCT LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND FINALLY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS REIGN SUPREME FOR MOST TERMINALS TODAY. PLAN ON
N-NE BREEZES WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING
LIGHT WINDS, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH ONLY A 5-10% CHANCE OF STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE SIERRA.
-EDAN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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