128
FXUS65 KREV 052049
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
149 PM PDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A WARMING AND DRYING TREND PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
* NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED MINOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS
AND RENEWED SNOWMELT RUNOFF.
* THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ON PAUSE UNTIL A 10-15% CHANCE
RESUMES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
* FOR TUESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT'S DROPPING SOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 95.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH BACK TO AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF MAY, WITH CALMER WINDS THAN TODAY.
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND UPWARDS OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS DURING THIS TIME
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NV, NORTHEAST CA,
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN MONO COUNTY. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW 90
DEGREE READINGS IN THE INNER BASINS. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES FOR
EASTERN SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S. AT THE MOMENT, RENO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS A 50%
CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD OF 88 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
* WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE
RUNNING FAST AND VERY COLD. CURRENT WATER TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SINCE THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE THE WARMEST WE'VE SEEN ALL SPRING, MINOR
HEATRISK ISSUES MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* AS IS COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR, HEATING OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR MINOR INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SIERRA. WE'LL HAVE A 10-15%
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF US-50. GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
* FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS IS POINTING TO
ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US. THERE IS
STILL TIMING ISSUES AMONG THE ENSEMBLES, BUT OVERALL
TEMPERATURES TREND LOWER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE'LL INTRODUCE LOW 15% CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, BUT AT THE MOMENT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
-MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* RESIDUAL CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING,
BUT CONTINUE TO HUG THE TERRAIN IN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. THESE
LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* NE FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY, WITH FL100 WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS,
WEAKENING INTO TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE ON THE DOWNWIND
SIDE OF THE SIERRA (I.E. WEST) IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. TERMINAL SITES WILL SEE NE WINDS PEAKING 10-20 KTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
* WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS BY MIDWEEK WITH RAPIDLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND SOME POSSIBLE DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS GIVEN
LOWER ELEVATION TERMINALS, SUCH AS KRNO/KCXP/KMEV, APPROACH THE
90 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. -DAWN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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