143
FXUS65 KREV 060915
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
215 AM PDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.
* NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED MINOR HEAT RISK CONCERNS
AND RENEWED SNOWMELT RUNOFF.
* THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ON PAUSE UNTIL A 10-15% CHANCE
IS SEEN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST UPPER AIR RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ID. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS PROJECT THE ID LOW TRAVELING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NV
TODAY KEEPING THE NORTHERLY UPPER AIR FLOW OVER THE CWA. AFTER
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CWA, FORECAST GUIDANCE MORE OR
LESS HAS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND, A PACNW TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE CWA SIGNALING A PATTERN CHANGE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
WITH THIS PATTERN ALOFT, A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY LOOK
SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY WITH VALLEY AREAS HAVING HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AND THE SIERRA MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES BEING
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S RANGE. REGION TEMPERATURES EXPECT TO
INCREASE GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. WESTERN NV HAS FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY WITH SOME AREAS SUCH AS FALLON
BEING IN THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY. THE RECORD HIGH OF 88 DEGREES
AT THE RENO-TAHOE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS A 34% CHANCE OF BEING
BROKEN ON FRIDAY WITH A 40% CHANCE ON SATURDAY WHEN LOOKING AT
THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES. THE LATEST NWS HEATRISK MAP
(WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK) SHOWS A WIDESPREAD MINOR RISK FOR
HEAT IMPACTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO PLEASE CONSIDER THIS IN
CASE YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED LATER THIS WEEK. LOCAL
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE RUNNING FAST AS WELL AS VERY COLD WITH
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES PROMOTING INCREASED SNOWMELT. GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO TREND COOLER DUE TO THE
EXPECTED UPPER TROUGH'S INFLUENCE.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE REGION LOOKS TO STAY GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE INCREASED DIURNAL
HEATING SEEN LATER IN THE WEEK, THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE THAT
WESTERN MONO COUNTY COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS DOES APPEAR TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH AROUND A 15-35% CHANCE SEEN ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
EXPECTED TROUGH. QPF VALUES LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN A TRACE AND
AROUND 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA AT THIS TIME.
WHILE AREA WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE, MODELS SHOW THE WINDS STARTING TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CWA. BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD SEE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS AS THERE IS STILL SOME INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL REGION TERMINALS WITH
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS LOOK
TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME INCREASING
AFTERNOON BREEZES AT KCXP/KMEV/KMMH. A WESTERLY FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND SOME POSSIBLE DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS GIVEN LOWER ELEVATION
TERMINALS, SUCH AS KRNO/KCXP/KMEV, APPROACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. -071/078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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