248
FXUS65 KREV 061914
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1214 PM PDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING
RECORDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
* A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE
SECOND HALF ON THE WEEK. SIMULATIONS DRIVE TEMPERATURES UP NEAR
RECORD LEVELS, 85-90 FOR WESTERN NV, AND 75-80 FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BRING A LITTLE EXTRA WATER WITH
YOU ON ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LATER THIS WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE SNOWMELT SO BE MINDFUL OF ELEVATED FLOWS ON CREEKS
AND RIVERS.
THE WARMTH WILL BUILD-UP THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIMULATIONS SHOWING 10-15% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR FROM CARSON VALLEY THROUGH
MONO COUNTY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE A TAD FOR FRIDAY WITH
COVERAGE OVER CARSON, DOUGLAS, LYON, ALPINE, MONO, AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS SUNDAY-TUESDAY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN A BIT VARIABLE BUT THERE IS INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT
THE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV SUNDAY-MONDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL/RECREATION,
INCREASED CHANCES (30-50%) OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK AT LEAST INTO THE 50S (SIERRA) AND 60S
(NV VALLEYS). COLDER SCENARIOS LOWER RAIN/SNOW LINES BELOW 5000
FEET WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AM. BRONG
AVIATION
* NE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, AND THE SIERRA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV, WITH
SOME FLAT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
TERRAIN SOUTH OF US-50.
* WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TOMORROW WITH RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND SOME POSSIBLE DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS GIVEN LOWER ELEVATION
TERMINALS, SUCH AS KRNO/KCXP/KMEV, APPROACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* SEEING SIGNS FOR STRONG WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT SPRING STORM, WHICH WILL SPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. -DAWN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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