082
FXUS65 KREV 070928
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
228 AM PDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
APPROACHING RECORDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
SIERRA AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 50 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
* A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS
WELL AS RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
NV WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER CA THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING.
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A PACNW TROUGH
THEN STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
PASSING OVER THE CWA ON TUESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT THIS WEEK, BOTH THE CURRENT WARMING
TREND ALONG WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITHIN THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
REGION. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
AND 80S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SOME WESTERN NV
LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER 90S BY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, THE
LATEST NWS HEATRISK MAP (WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK) SHOWS A
WIDESPREAD MINOR RISK FOR HEAT IMPACTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NV REACHING THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY ON
SATURDAY. PLEASE REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PLANNED LATER THIS WEEK. THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO PROMOTE MORE SNOWMELT CAUSING ELEVATED FLOWS IN AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS.
WHEN LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE CWA LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE LATEST NBM'S
FORECAST MEAN SBCAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
SIERRA AREAS ALONG US-395 AND SOUTH OF US-50 ON BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WITH THE SBCAPE SPREADING INTO THE CARSON
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS TRANSLATES TO A 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE TIMES WHICH COULD YIELD GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, BRIEF PERIODS OF INCREASED RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL IF THEY
DEVELOP.
WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND, A CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LONG
TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEATHER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
CA/NV ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EXACT PATH THIS FAR OUT. AS A RESULT, SIERRA RIDGE WINDS
HAVE A 30-50% CHANCE OF GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH OR MORE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF WESTERN NV SEE SIMILAR CHANCES OF
GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR MORE ON BOTH DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS GOING FORWARD IN CASE WINDS TREND UPWARD AND PRODUCTS ARE
NEEDED. A COOLING TREND ALSO IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S RANGE
IN THE NV VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE IN THE
SIERRA COMMUNITIES ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM ALSO
BRINGS BACK VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES (30-50%) TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHEN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. PLEASE CONTINUE
TO WATCH FOR FORECAST UPDATES AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE AS THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS TO THE REGION. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AT ALL REGION TERMINALS WITH
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY
BREEZES TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW STILL LOOKS TO RETURN TODAY ALONG
WITH RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOME POSSIBLE DENSITY ALTITUDE
CONCERNS LATER IN THE WEEK GIVEN THAT LOWER ELEVATION TERMINALS, SUCH
AS KRNO/KCXP/KMEV, APPROACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS SIGNALS OF A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING
INCREASED WINDS, BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page