234
FXUS65 KREV 071909
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1209 PM PDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL ABOVE AVERAGES TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS APPROACHING RECORDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD-UPS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONLY A 5-10% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY.
* A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS
WELL AS RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THIS WEEK WILL PROVIDE A VERY SPRING LIKE PATTERN FEATURING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED
BY A SPRING STORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL PROVIDE HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BY THURSDAY (LOW 70S FOR
SIERRA), WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THESE DAYS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR
W.NEVADA VALLEYS WITH MID 70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OR MORE SO WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR
LATE JUNE. OVERALL ODDS AT BREAK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS,
PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY, ARE ABOUT 20-40%.
THESE WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE AFTERNOON CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH FRIDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT STILL LOW CHANCES (<10%).
CONDITIONS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS
MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. FOR THIS WEEKEND, THIS WILL
MANIFEST FIRST AS AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH BREEZY WINDS ON
SATURDAY (GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH), FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. OVERALL, THESE DAYS COULD SEE A 40-60% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 50 MPH GUSTS FOR LOWER VALLEYS WITH HIGHER GUSTS (60+
MPH) IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS.
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW TO WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WITH MAINLY WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NE CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE CORE OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION NEXT
MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THIS WINDIER, WETTER,
AND COOLER PATTERN AS TEMPERATURES LOWER TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FUENTES
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES
AND FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO A 5-10% CHANCE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY.
A SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE AND LLWS. FUENTES
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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