087
FXUS65 KREV 080904
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 AM PDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL ABOVE AVERAGES TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
APPROACHING RECORDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD-UPS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONLY A 5-10% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY.
* A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS
WELL AS RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE CWA UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WESTERN NV WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WHILE THE SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. STILL ANTICIPATING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS SEEN THIS WEEK WITH
WESTERN NV VALLEYS BEING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S RANGE AND THE
SIERRA VALLEYS BEING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S RANGE. THE NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR A NEW RECORD HIGH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT THE
RENO TAHOE REGIONAL AIRPORT HAVE DECREASED WITH THE LATEST RUN
SHOWING LESS THAN 20% CHANCE. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE
IS A 70% CHANCE THAT RNO SEES A NEW RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY, MAY 10TH (CURRENT RECORD BEING 53F IN
1990). THE LATEST NWS HEATRISK MAP (PLEASE VISIT:
WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK FOR MORE INFO) SHOWS A WIDESPREAD MINOR
RISK FOR HEAT IMPACTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NV REACHING THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY ON SATURDAY. PLEASE
REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED
LATER THIS WEEK. THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PROMOTE MORE
SNOWMELT CAUSING ELEVATED FLOWS IN AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS.
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN
THE CWA, THE 00Z RUN OF NAM3KM MODEL SHOWS SOME BUILDUPS IN THE
SIERRA CREST OF MONO COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND
TOMORROW WHEN PEAK DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. AS SUCH THERE IS AROUND
A 10% CHANCE OR LESS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THOUGH NOT THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AS OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING EVEN THESE LOW
CHANCES.
DURING THE WEEKEND, MODELS HAVE A PACNW UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE CWA THAT CLOSES OFF INTO A LOW LATE SUNDAY OFF THE COAST OF WA.
THIS CHANGES THE PATTERN OVER THE CWA AS THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK. AS A
RESULT, SURFACE WINDS PICK UP A BIT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY CAUSING STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW AROUND A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ON BOTH DAYS FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OF 60+ MPH POSSIBLE IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE WIND PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO
BEGIN ON SUNDAY THAT CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY CAUSING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS IN THE 20S AND THE 30S. TEMPERATURES THEN START TO
REBOUND MIDWEEK AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOOK TO RETURN STARTING LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
COME IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. THE LATEST NBM
RUN SHOWS A 40-50% CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AT
THE SIERRA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS THE
REGION BECOMING DRY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AT ALL AREA TERMINALS
WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FEW-SCT
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD-UPS ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE SIERRA
CREST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO A 5-10% CHANCE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
A SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS BY SUNDAY
WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE
AND LLWS. FUENTES/078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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