469
FXUS65 KREV 262002
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
102 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MINERAL COUNTY.
* A WARMING TREND IS IN THE FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD, WITH THE
HOTTEST DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY PRODUCING NEAR-RECORD WARMTH AND
MODERATE-LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK UPPER LOW WHICH BROKE OFF FROM LAST NIGHT'S TROUGH PASSAGE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SMALL AREA OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER NEAR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV FROM TAHOE
SOUTHWARD, WITH BEST CHANCES (15-20%) ACROSS MONO-SOUTHERN
MINERAL COUNTIES BETWEEN 2-8 PM. FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN
OUTDOOR RECREATION THIS AFTERNOON, KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND HAVE
ACCESS TO SHELTER IF CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOW INCREASED VERTICAL
GROWTH.
AFTER THESE SHOWERS DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER CA-NV. EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL, A STRAY LATE-DAY
SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT (5-10% CHANCE) IF
ANY SUBTLE SMALL-SCALE UPPER DISTURBANCES EMERGE NEAR THE SIERRA,
AS WE GET PROGRESSIVELY WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HEAT WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT BY LATE THIS WEEK, WITH
HIGHS SURGING WELL INTO THE 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LATE
WEEK. SATURDAY IS PROJECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OVERALL--A FEW
LOWER VALLEYS COULD POTENTIALLY TOUCH 100 DEGREES, WITH HEATRISK
EDGING INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY AS THIS LEVEL OF HEAT IS MORE
TYPICAL FOR JULY. RENO'S CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ARE 96 FOR MAY 30
(FRIDAY) AND 98 FOR MAY 31 (SATURDAY), WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
SHOWING 50-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST TYING THESE LEVELS. ISOLATED
LATE DAY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND AN UPTICK IN BREEZES MAY
RETURN BY SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW IN
WHETHER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
UTILIZE THE EXTRA HEAT AND GENERATE STORM CELLS.
THIS PUSH OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT IS LOOKING TO BE SHORT-LIVED, AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES REPLACED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH BY SUNDAY, WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSSIBLY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH DOWN ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES FROM
SATURDAY'S PEAK. A MORE NOTABLE COOLING WOULD THEN FOLLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK IF THE CLOSED LOW SETUP OCCURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ALSO TREND UPWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED WINDS FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF SUMMER-
LIKE HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD ALSO
INCREASE. MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAIN TERMINALS WITH MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS AND TYPICAL PM BREEZES (GUSTS 20 KT OR LESS) FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEFLY LOWER
CEILINGS, GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THRU 03Z
THIS EVENING AT KMMH (20-30% CHANCE) AND KTVL (LESS THAN 15%
CHANCE). A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK MAY PRESENT
DENSITY ALTITUDE ISSUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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