023
FXUS65 KREV 271002
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
302 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
HOTTEST DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY PRODUCING NEAR-RECORD WARMTH AND
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK.
* THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE
EASTERN SIERRA.
* WHILE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN NV WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST OF IT THIS MORNING. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT LIGHT WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NV. GOING THROUGH TODAY,
FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS PUSHING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN NV BY
TONIGHT. WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, MODELS ALSO HAVE A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AS WELL WHICH WILL SET UP A GOOD REX BLOCK PATTERN BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN BREAKS ON SUNDAY AS PACNW TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE CWA AND CLOSES OFF INTO A LOW ON MONDAY.
WITH ALL OF THIS HAPPENING ABOVE, IT MEANS THAT AREA TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON WARMING TREND GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE
VALLEY AREAS SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TODAY, DAYTIME
HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY. THE RENO-TAHOE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING ITS FIRST 90
DEGREE DAY OF 2025 ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LATEST NBM RUN HAVING
AROUND A 70% PROBABILITY OF THIS TEMPERATURE OCCURRING. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER 90S BEING SEEN ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS THOSE AROUND FALLON HAVING A
40-70% PROBABILITY OF HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY. THE
RENO AREA ITSELF HAS AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR 100 DEGREES AS WELL
ON SATURDAY SO IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE SIERRA
COMMUNITIES WILL NOT BE LEFT OUT WITH THE INCREASED WARMTH AS
DAYTIME HIGHS SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY
AND THEN WELL INTO THE 80S GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
THE LATEST HEATRISK MAP SHOWS A MODERATE RISK ON WEDNESDAY IN
WESTERN NV THAT GRADUALLY GROWS AND CROSSES IN CA GOING THROUGH
THE WEEK. A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HIGH CATEGORY HEATRISK IS
INTRODUCED ON FRIDAY IN WESTERN NV AND GROWS IN AREAL COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY. PLEASE VISIT WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON HEATRISK AND WHAT THE CATEGORIES MEAN FOR IMPACTS.
BUT PLEASE CONSIDER PREPARING FOR THIS HEAT NOW BEFORE IT ARRIVES
AS TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL CLOSER TO THOSE IN MID-JULY THAN LATE
MAY. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO CAUSE INCREASED SNOWMELT CAUSING RIVERS
TO RUN FASTER AND COLDER, SO PLEASE DO NOT ENTER RIVERS AND
STREAMS TO COOL OFF FROM THIS HEAT AS IT WILL CAUSE SAFETY
CONCERNS AS WELL.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE CWA LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA. HOW DRY YOU MAY ASK? SO DRY THAT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS BEGINNING TODAY. WHILE THE CURRENT STATUS OF FUELS AS
WELL FORECAST WINDS FOR THE AREA ARE NOT SIGNALING DANGEROUS AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO PRACTICE FIRE
SAFETY WHILE OUTDOORS. CAMS SHOW THAT EASTERN SIERRA MOUNTAIN
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE HAVING A LOW (10-15%) CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW. BEYOND THIS, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DO NOT LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL THE PATTERN CHANGES AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO START COOLING DOWN A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES WHEN DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TERMINALS WITH MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS AND TYPICAL PM BREEZES (GUSTS 20 KT OR LESS) FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
THE REGION, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-15%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE EASTERN SIERRA. A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
PRESENT DENSITY ALTITUDE ISSUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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