796
FXUS65 KREV 281012
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
312 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEK
WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PROJECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS.
* THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY IN THE
EASTERN SIERRA.
* WIND AND LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
THE MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMING TREND
THAT WILL TAKE US INTO NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TERRITORY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, PLAN ON LIGHT
WINDS WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA TODAY.
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE REGION, TEMPERATURES IN THE
CWA CONTINUE THE ONGOING HEATING TREND. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S RANGE ARE ON TAP FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS
TODAY WITH SIERRA COMMUNITIES SEEING HIGHS BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 70S
AND AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE RENO-TAHOE AIRPORT CONTINUES TO
SEE A GOOD CHANCE (70%) AT HITTING 90 DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BE
THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY FOR 2025. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
CREEP UPWARDS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE
VALLEY AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE THE SIERRA COMMUNITIES HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW A 40-70%
PROBABILITY FOR BASIN AND RANGE LOCATIONS LIKE THOSE AROUND FALLON
HITTING THE 100 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. AS FOR THE RENO AREA,
THE LATEST NBM RUN SHOWS A 60% CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD
TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 30TH (CURRENT RECORD: 96F IN 1986) AND A 58%
CHANCE FOR BREAKING THE MAY 31ST RECORD (CURRENT RECORD: 98F IN
1910). THE RNO AIRPORT ALSO HAS A 39% NBM PROBABILITY OF REACHING
100F ON SATURDAY WHICH WOULD BE THE EARLIEST 100F DAY IN A
CALENDAR YEAR ON RECORD (CURRENT EARLIEST IS 6/7 IN 2013) AND ALSO
A NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF MAY (CURRENT RECORD: 98F IN
1910). IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT RNO HAS REALLY GOOD CHANCES
(OVER 75%) TO SEE THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES ON RECORD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLING FOR A 63 DEGREE LOW
TEMPERATURE ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. SO IT LOOKS TO BE
A HOT ONE WITH THIS JULY-LIKE HEAT, WITH WIDESPREAD HEATRISK
VALUES IN THE MODERATE RISK CATEGORY AND POCKETS OF MAJOR RISK
SPREADING INTO WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PLEASE MAKE
PREPARATIONS AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR THE UPCOMING (AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS) HEAT THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS. THE HEAT WILL ALSO PRODUCE INCREASED SNOWMELT WITH
RIVERS RUNNING FAST AND COLD, SO PLEASE AVOID ENTERING RIVERS AND
STREAMS TO COOL OFF AS THERE WILL BE SAFETY ISSUES.
WHILE THIS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION ALSO LOOKS TO KEEP REGION
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
AGAIN THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE EASTERN SIERRA FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE GOING
DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY. THE SPC HAS THESE AREAS IN A CATEGORY OF
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THEIR LATEST OUTLOOK, SO GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POTENTIAL
HAZARDS SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM OCCUR WITH THESE SHOWERS (SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY). SO, PLEASE HAVE A WAY
RECEIVE THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS
IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS HOT PATTERN BREAKING ON SUNDAY GOING
INTO MONDAY AS A PACNW TROUGH APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS PATTERN
BREAK WILL START A COOLING TREND AND INCREASED WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS WELL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE 2025,
SO WILL BE MONITORING THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES
WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING, THERE MAY BE SOME RECOVERY NEXT WEEK
FROM THE SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. BUT THIS RECOVERY MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASED WINDS NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE DRY SPELL OF THIS WEEK. SO
PLEASE CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IF BURNING OUTSIDE AS WELL REPORT
ANY WILDFIRES SPOTTED TO LOCAL DISPATCH. -MRC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZES EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FOR TODAY, THERE
MAY BE A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS OR CUMULUS BUILDUPS ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA WITH A 15-25% CHANCE OF A STORM DEVELOPING. A BIG WARM UP
IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THAT MAY RESULT IN DENSITY ALTITUDE
CONCERNS. -MRC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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