563
FXUS65 KREV 302139
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
239 PM PDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR LATE MAY CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA.
* ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN
SIERRA BELOW 7000 FEET.
* ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND VICINITY, BUT BROADER RAIN AND STORM POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION LEADING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THEREFORE, EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE, ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW, WE WILL BE BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS. SO, IT WILL BE STILL
HOT, BUT WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. TOMORROW WE ARE EXPECTING THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. THE NV BASIN AND RANGE AND
MINERAL COUNTY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 100-103F WITH
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK. THEREFORE, WE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE REST OF WESTERN NV
WILL BE HOT TOO, BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE. RENO'S PROBABILITIES OF
REACHING 100F INCREASED TO 65% TODAY. THERE IS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD
OF REACHING THE EARLIEST 100-DEGREE DAY ON RECORD. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SO, IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR TEMPS TO COOL OFF IN THE EVENING. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN FAST AND COLD AS SNOWMELT
CONTINUES WITH THE HEAT. THE EASTERN SIERRA ALSO HAS A 10-20%
CHANCE TO OBSERVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL
BE DRY LIGHTNING, AS IT WILL BE QUITE DRY.
BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS DOWN WHICH WILL BRING COOLER
AIR. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE WITH WIND PRONE LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 50 MPH. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASE TOO, NOW CLOSER TO 10-30%, BUT REMAIN
MOSTLY IN PORTIONS SOUTH OF US-50. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
STILL BE QUITE DRY. SO, THERE ARE RED FLAG WARNINGS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. FOR MORE FIRE WEATHER INFO, TAKE A LOOK AT THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THAT UPPER
TROUGH, TURNED CLOSED LOW, CONTINUES A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY.
HOWEVER, THESE CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE IT IS CLOSEST TO THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR WESTERN NV, AND THE MID
70S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE
DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TYPICAL PM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT TOMORROW
WINDS INCREASE AFTER 18Z. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KTS, RANGING FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN NV TERMINALS
AND KMMH. GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A
10-20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z SAT TO 3Z
SUNDAY, WHICH MAY BRING SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND VIS DROPS
TO MVFR. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
-HC
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ZONES
274 BELOW 7000 FT (SOUTHERN MONO), 420 BELOW 7000 FT (NORTHERN
SIERRA), 421 (SOUTHERN SIERRA FRONT), AND 429 (LAHONTAN BASIN).
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND PORTIONS OF THE
SIERRA BELOW 7000 FT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN A BIT IN TERM
OF WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
GUSTS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST MOSTLY IN THE 30-35 MPH ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, FOR SUNDAY, WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY HASN'T CHANGED
MUCH WITH VALUES BELOW 15% ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. FUELS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE
STILL CLASSIFIED AS MARGINAL BUT RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY IN THE
REGION SUPPORTS THE QUICK IGNITION AND SPREAD OF ANY ACTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO A 10-20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN SIERRA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO FIRE IGNITIONS
FROM LIGHTNING, AND IF THERE ARE ANY HOLDOVERS RESULT IN WIND
DRIVEN FIRES ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS.
MOISTURE SLIPS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN AND DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPEARS TO INCREASE ONLY OVER THE
EASTERN SIERRA. THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS MORE OR LESS
UNTOUCHED, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...
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