085
FXUS65 KREV 142124
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LONGER PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY.
* TYPICAL JUNE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH MODERATE HEATRISK RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
* STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO RETURN BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS LEADING TO BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS, HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-JUNE.
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THOSE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH, WHILE WIND PRONE
AREAS AND RIDGES GUST TO 30-40 MPH. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF
GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH IN MOST PLACES, WHILE RENO HAS A 50-55%
CHANCE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED IN AREAS SOUTH OF
US-50 THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY, A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PACNW AND THE GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE,
EXPECT STRONGER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, ABOUT 3 TO
5 DEGREES LOWER. WINDS WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY
TURN THROUGH THE DAY TO THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 35 MPH. STRONGER
WINDS ARE VERY LIKELY ON WIND PRONE AREAS AND OVER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. THE OVERLAP OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BRINGS ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NV. MORE INFO CAN
BE FOUND BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN NV AND
NORTHEASTERN CA NEAR THE OREGON BORDER, RESULTING IN A 5-10%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START COOL ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT QUICKLY PICK UP BY
WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 90S ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND NE CA VALLEYS, WHILE THE SIERRA RISES TO THE UPPER
70S AND 80S. THE LIGHTEST WINDS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED ON THESE
DAYS TOO.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER, ALTHOUGH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE NBM
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY AS THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF
THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH, THIS IS FAR DOWN THE LINE, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING, THEN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 18Z-03Z BECOME FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS AND GUSTING TO 25 KTS. STRONGER WINDS ARE
VERY LIKELY ON MONDAY.
-HC
FIRE WEATHER
PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BE EITHER BRIEF
OR TOO ISOLATED TO BE OF MAJOR CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT. STILL THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SIERRA FRONT DOWN TO EASTERN MINERAL AND WESTERN MONO BELOW 7000
FEET.
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. THE MAIN AREAS AFFECTED WILL
BE ZONES 420, 421 AND 429 IN NV. NEARBY ZONES WILL HAVE ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TOO, BUT THE DURATION APPEARS TO BE
BRIEF. REGARDLESS, STRONGEST WINDS EXCEEDING 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH OVERLAPS WITH THE DRIEST
PART OF THE DAY. FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS WE HAVE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY BETWEEN 1 & 11 PM. AREAS NEAR
THE OR BORDER ARE WETTER, SO THE CONCERN FOR WINDS/HUMIDITY IS
LESS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS (AROUND 5%)
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE REGION AND
WINDS BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
NVZ420-421-429.
CA...NONE.
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