336
FXUS65 KREV 150752
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1252 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS, RESULTING IN AREAS OF LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
* TYPICAL JUNE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH MODERATE HEATRISK RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
* STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO RETURN BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OR CONCERNS WITH TODAY'S
FORECAST. WE'LL KEEP THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONAL WITH THE TYPICAL WESTERLY BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
* AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL
FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
START FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY TURN THROUGH THE DAY TO THE
NORTHWEST. GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN
25-35 MPH WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 35 MPH. STRONGER
WINDS UPWARDS OF 35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY FOR WIND PRONE AREAS AND
OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES. AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A
STABLE OR CRITICAL LAYER ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL, SO ENHANCED
DOWNSLOPE WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY (MORE GRADIENT DRIVEN).
NONETHELESS, EXPECT IMPACTS TO AVIATION, AND ANY RECREATION
ACTIVITIES ON LOCAL LAKES, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NV AND MONO
COUNTY. THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT ON MONDAY,
PLEASE SEE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. WE'LL COOL
DOWN 3-6 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. A FEW HIGHER RESOLUTION DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND HREF ARE
SHOWING SOME CONVECTION OVER FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY AND
NORTHEAST CA NEAR THE OREGON BORDER, RESULTING IN A 5-10% CHANCE
OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
* AFTER MONDAY'S SYSTEM, WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
WESTERN US ON TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS
AND EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY, RESULTING IN MODERATE HEATRISK. MOST
EASTERN SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL SEE LOW TO UPPER 80S. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES ARE STILL ADVERTISING A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER (STILL DRY) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, MODELS
AND BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE NOW STARTING TO SLOWLY CONVERGE ON A
STRONGER WIND EVENT. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WIND
WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, THEN BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 18Z-03Z BECOME FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS
AND GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS.
* STRONGER WINDS ARE VERY LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH A PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF THE TAHOE AREA. SUSTAINED WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS IN THE MORNING WILL TURN SLOWLY NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY. MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LLWS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. -MCKELLAR
FIRE WEATHER
* DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
ON MONDAY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT BETWEEN 1 PM TO 11
PM PDT MONDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 420, 421 AND 429 IN NEVADA. FOR
THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITIES OF 5-15%
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIMITED RECOVERIES MONDAY MORNING OF
20-30%. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE
BETWEEN 1800-2000 LOCAL, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
* THE CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY IS LESS FOR
NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY TOWARD THE OR
BORDER. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS GREATER IN THAT AREA AND THERE
IS A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS (AROUND 5-10%) FROM NOON TO
AROUND 1800-2000 LOCAL. THE MAIN RISKS FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING WITH LITTLE RAINFALL, AS WELL AS ERRATIC GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH. -MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
NVZ420-421-429.
CA...
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