828
FXUS65 KREV 170839
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
139 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* TYPICAL JUNE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY,
WITH MODERATE HEATRISK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH MORE FIRE WEATHER, RECREATION AND AVIATION CONCERNS.
* CONTINUED COOL, DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP AROUND 3-6 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO
MONDAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 DEGREES OF WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, WE'LL HAVE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 90S (A FEW
AREAS NEAR 100 DEGREES) IN WESTERN NV, EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY,
AND LOWER MONO COUNTY, WITH MOSTLY 80S FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
COMMUNITIES. THERE WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY AND FOR
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
* A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN STORE THURSDAY ONWARD. MODEL
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVERTISING A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE (FAIRLY STRONG FOR MID-JUNE) DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY THE WEEKEND. FIRST, A TROUGH WILL INITIALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DROPS INTO THE PACNW. WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS, STRONG W/SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO MATERIALIZE LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THESE GRADIENTS INCREASE
FURTHER AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
(50-70 MPH ALONG THE SIERRA RIDGES) WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER BOUT OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, RECREATION, AND AVIATION
IMPACTS. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THIS INCOMING TROUGH IS
STILL LOW, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST NV, NORTHEAST CA, AND OR. THOSE AREAS WILL HAVE
AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO DROP THE SNOW
LEVELS A TOUCH, SO THE WARNER MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A TOUCH OF SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY. COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, SATURDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES COOLER, AND SOME 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.
* MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY
VARIABLE IN THE MORNING; THEN WEST 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15KTS
EACH AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
* THE NEXT PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS IS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND
LLWS FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. -MCKELLAR
FIRE WEATHER
* THE NEXT PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH FRIDAY SHOWING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITY. WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
40 TO 50 MPH AND ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS, THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
WESTERN NEVADA AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. -MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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