894
FXUS65 KREV 172036
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
136 PM PDT TUE JUN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* TYPICAL JUNE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER PREVAIL, WITH MODERATE
HEATRISK TOMORROW AND THURSDAY.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH MORE FIRE WEATHER, RECREATION AND AVIATION CONCERNS.
* CONTINUED COOL, DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TOASTY WARM
RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHICH PLACES US
UNDER THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SOME HEATING IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TO LOOK FORWARD TO BEFORE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. THIS
PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR US TO FEEL EFFECTS FROM AN
INCOMING TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS IS A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF SPRING MONTHS HERE, AS THE RIDGE
IS USUALLY FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN MID-JUNE.
INSTEAD, WE WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS
ALONG THE OREGON BORDER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK A SLOW, STEADY CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD FOR MIDWEEK. LET'S DIG INTO THE DETAILS OF
THE UPCOMING FORECAST.
* THROUGH THURSDAY: WE WILL SEE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AGAIN TODAY,
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES. THE HEATING
TREND BUILDS TO IT'S PEAK TOMORROW, BRINGING A 20% CHANCE TO
CLIMB TO 99 AT RENO-TAHOE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. AREAS NEAR
FALLON, HAWTHORNE AND SILVER SPRINGS MAY CLIMB TO 100 DEGREES,
WITH CHANCES RANGING 10-70%, HIGHER NEAR HAWTHORNE. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WARM,
WITH INCREASING BREEZES AND CLOUDS INDICATING THE INCOMING
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE REGION. THURSDAY, WITH THE HEATING
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS, LINGERING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DECLINE. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH,
STARTING THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 60 MPH ALONG SIERRA
PEAKS, WHILE LEESIDE VALLEYS REACH GUSTS OF 45 MPH. ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS ALONG RIDGES, WE WILL SEE SOME CHOPPY LAKE WATERS.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 10% ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA, WHILE SIERRA LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID- TWENTIES. LEESIDE VALLEYS WILL ESPECIALLY STRUGGLE WITH
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
* FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY: FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WINDY, DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH INFLUENCE WILL BE KEEPING TEMPERATURES MUCH
LOWER(80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, 50-60S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS), THE
BREEZES COUPLED WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ABOUT
ANOTHER DAY UNDER FIRE WEATHER WATCH. FOR DETAILS, SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW. FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL START TO SEE THE FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS IN ALONG THE OREGON
BORDER, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER. EVEN WITH THE
CLASHING OF TWO RATHER DIFFERENT AIRMASSES, THERE IS LIMITED
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO BE AN ISSUE, ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE
OUT A 10% CHANCE FOR A STRIKE. SATURDAY, THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE PROMINENT OVER NE CALIFORNIA, BUT STILL
DRY OVER WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. FOR NOW, WE ARE WAITING TO SEE
HOW FAR THE MOISTURE WILL TRAVEL ON SATURDAY, AS THIS WILL
MODIFY THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROFILES SUCH THAT SOME AREAS MAY
NOT NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. PLAN ON AREAS OVER THE BASIN AND
RANGE TO REMAIN DRY, ALBEIT A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TAP THAN RECENT
DAYS. IN FACT, CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE MAY
SEE UPPER 60 TO LOW 70S OVER THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND
UPPER 40 TO 50S FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS. SUNDAY, THINGS BEGIN TO
WARM SLIGHTLY AS WE CLIMB BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
* EARLY NEXT WEEK: MORNING SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON SIERRA CLOUDS,
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES START TO TRY TO MOVE BACK IN,
ALTHOUGH A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN MAY REMAIN INTO MIDWEEK THAT
COULD KEEP US ON THE COOLER END OF THE SUMMER TEMPERATURE RANGE
FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. HRICH
AVIATION
* LIGHTER WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY VARIABLE IN THE
MORNING; THEN WEST 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20KTS EACH
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* THE NEXT PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS IS THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LLWS FOR THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. -MCKELLAR/HRICH
FIRE WEATHER
* THE NEXT PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BEGIN THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY SHOWING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITY. WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
40 TO 50 MPH AND ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS (RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS), THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN NEVADA AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CA EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SATURDAY STILL BEING ANALYZED FOR ADDING TO
THE WATCH.- MCKELLAR/HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING NVZ420-421-423-429-458.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING CAZ274-278.
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