535
FXUS65 KREV 180931
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
231 AM PDT WED JUN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT WEEK OCCUR TODAY, WITH
MODERATE HEATRISK TODAY AND THURSDAY.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH MORE FIRE WEATHER, RECREATION, AND AVIATION CONCERNS.
* CONTINUED COOL, DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, TODAY'S TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE WELL INTO THE MID-90S IN WESTERN NV, EASTERN
LASSEN, AND LOWER MONO COUNTY. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE
COMMONPLACE FOR EASTERN SIERRA COMMUNITIES, WITH 70S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RECORDS ARE NOT LIKELY TODAY, BUT NONETHELESS
IT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS
20-25 MPH.
* BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP, ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE DAYS OF STRONG
WINDS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST CA AND
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. THIS WILL CAUSE LIKELY IMPACTS TO
AVIATION AND ANY RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES ON LOCAL LAKES. FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
* FOR THURSDAY, NEAR-TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INITIAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. AS GRADIENTS INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM, GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
MATERIALIZE BY THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA. WIND GUSTS
WILL APPROACH 50-60 MPH ALONG SIERRA PEAKS, WHILE LEESIDE
VALLEYS HAVE AROUND A 40-80% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40
MPH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER ON FRIDAY,
WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AND BECOME THE STRONGEST OF THE
WEEK. MODELS DEPICT 700MB WINDS AROUND 40-45KTS, WITH THE REGION
IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF A 80-90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS A 45-70% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF AT LEAST 50 MPH FOR
WIND PRONE AREAS IN WESTERN NV, LASSEN AND MONO COUNTIES WITH A
>50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH ALONG THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO THE ARE BY SATURDAY,
LEADING TO A 40-60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CA AND
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE
PYRAMID AND PERSHING COUNTY.
* FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
ENSEMBLES STILL HINT AT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN US. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL AND BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY. GRADUAL WARMING COMMENCES BY MID-WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE AREA REMAINS
DRY DURING THE LONG-TERM. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* LIGHTER WINDS TODAY, GENERALLY VARIABLE IN THE MORNING; THEN
WEST 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
* THE NEXT PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS IS THURSDAY-FRIDAY, WITH WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
AT ALL WESTERN NV AND EASTERN SIERRA TERMINALS. RIDGE WINDS
WILL INCREASE UPWARDS 45-55 KTS ON THURSDAY AND 55-65 KTS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND
LLWS FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. -MCKELLAR
FIRE WEATHER
* THE NEXT PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BEGIN THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY SHOWING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITY. WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS 40 TO
50 MPH AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS,
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN NEVADA AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN CA EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VERY POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SATURDAY STILL BEING ANALYZED FOR ADDING TO
THE WATCH. -MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING NVZ420-421-423-429-458.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING CAZ274-278.
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