769
FXUS65 KREV 190904
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 AM PDT THU JUN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG WINDS START TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH FIRE
WEATHER, RECREATION, TRAVEL, AND AVIATION CONCERNS.
* TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY, WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK.
* CONTINUED COOL, DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* OTHER THAN A SLIGHT 15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY FOR
NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, THERE ARE NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT GAVE US
HOT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY IS MOVING EAST AS AN INITIAL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. BY FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO NORTHERN NV. THIS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG,
COLD LOW PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US SEVERAL DAYS OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND PRECIPITATION
FOR NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV.
* STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE BY THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. THE WESTERN NV AND EASTERN
SIERRA VALLEYS WILL SEE WINDS CALM BY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN ONCE
AGAIN RAMP UP EVEN STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS
HAVE A LIKELY CHANCE OF APPROACHING 50-60 MPH FOR WIND PRONE
AREAS ALONG US-395 IN WESTERN NV, AS WELL AS EASTERN LASSEN AND
MONO COUNTIES. THE LEESIDE VALLEYS WILL HAVE LIKELY GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WINDS REMAIN VERY STRONG (FOR
MID-JUNE) ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA MOUNTAIN RIDGES, WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 60-80 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
RECREATIONAL IMPACTS ON LAKES, AS WELL AS TRANSPORTATION AND
AVIATION IMPACTS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY
WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
* AS FOR PRECIPITATION, TODAY WE HAVE A SLIGHT 15% CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WHERE WE HAVE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS. FOR FRIDAY, A 30-60% CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN EXISTS ALONG A LINE NORTH OF I-80, FROM SUSANVILLE
THROUGH GERLACH AND PYRAMID LAKE. CHANCES FOR THUNDER ON FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE GREATEST FOR FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY, BUT ARE
ONLY 5-10%. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WERNER MOUNTAINS IN
MODOC COUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY MAY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE UNLIKELY.
* MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH FOR
JUNE, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE SIERRA. BY SATURDAY,
WE COOL OFF EVEN FURTHER, WITH WESTERN NEVADA FALLING IN THE
60S, WHILE PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO MODERATE FOR SUNDAY, BRINGING A
SIMILAR SET OF HIGHS AS FRIDAY, WITH MUCH LESS WIND AND CLEARING
CLOUDS. MONDAY, A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA
AND 60S TO 70S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
* A PERSISTENT WEAK TROUGH PATTERN WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.
WARMING BEGINS TO RETURN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, APPROACHING
OUR SEASONAL NORMS. DESPITE THE TROUGH PRESENCE, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY, WITH SPEEDS OF 15-25 KTS
WIDESPREAD, AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. FRIDAY WINDS INCREASE MORE,
WITH RIDGE WINDS APPROACHING 65 KTS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LLWS AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE BOTH DAYS, WITH
FRIDAY BEING THE MORE INTENSE DAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL TODAY. HRICH/MCKELLAR
FIRE WEATHER
* THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR
LEESIDE VALLEYS FOR TODAY, WITH WIND PRONE AREAS SEEING UP TO 60
MPH AND RIDGES AS GUSTY AS 70 MPH. BY FRIDAY, WIDESPREAD GUSTS
CONTINUE, INCREASING LEESIDE VALLEYS TO 50 MPH, WIND PRONE AREAS
TO 65 MPH AND RIDGE GUSTS TO 80 MPH. COUPLED WITH LOW RELATIVE
DAYTIME HUMIDITY RANGING 5-15% AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
AROUND 20-30%. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN, OKLAHOMA
HAS INCLUDED OUR AREA IN THE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY AND FOR FRIDAY.
* CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MONITORED, WITH THE CAVEAT BEING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL TRAVEL. SATURDAY WILL HAVE 3-6 HOURS OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MINERAL, MONO, SOUTHERN
LYON AND SOUTHERN ALPINE COUNTIES. THIS AREA MAY BE CONSIDERED
FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH, BUT HEADLINES MAY SUFFICE IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. HRICH/MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PDT FRIDAY
NIGHT NVZ420-421-423-429-458.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY NVZ001>005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ001-003-004.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT PDT FRIDAY
NIGHT CAZ274-278.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY CAZ071>073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING CAZ073.
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