822
FXUS65 KREV 092123
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
223 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS
OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY. BRIEF
CHANCES OF ISOLATED PM THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER TODAY.
* WARMING TREND RESUMES THURSDAY, CULMINATING IN WIDESPREAD HEAT
IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND.
* TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY FOR LOWER VALLEYS FROM SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK.
DISCUSSION
IN THE LATEST RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS, AN UPPER AIR LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CA AND INTO THE CWA TODAY. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REPORT DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE OR
BORDER LATER TODAY AND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF
THIS LOW, INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30-35 MPH ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA
FRONT AS WELL AS IN THE WESTERN BASIN AND RANGE. WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RANGING BETWEEN THE LOWER TEENS AND THE SINGLE
DIGITS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE TO BE EXPECTED WITH A
FEW HOURS OF LOCALLY CRITICAL POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NV (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING
THAT THE LATEST RUN OF THE HREF SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE (~15%) FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY BETWEEN AROUND
3-7 PM PT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR'S NEAR-SURFACE
SMOKE PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS SMOKE FROM NORTHERN CA & OR WILDFIRES
MOVING INTO CWA PORTIONS CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER TONIGHT, SO THAT
MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SENSITIVE
TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY WITH VALLEY
AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER
90S RANGE WHILE THE SIERRA MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WITH THIS PATTERN COMING UP,
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WARMING TREND WHERE WESTERN NV VALLEYS
WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S BY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
AREAS SEEING THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CENTURY MARK BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA EXPECT TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY AND THEN CROSS OVER INTO THE LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH THIS SETUP AS WELL
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PRIMARY CONCERN LOOKS TO BE THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AS THE LATEST HEATRISK SHOWS AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK
INCREASING IN WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WESTERN NV
VALLEY AREAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 100S ON
THESE DAYS WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EXPECT TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S RANGE. WITH MAJOR
HEATRISK IN THE FORECAST, IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK YOUR
COOLING SYSTEMS NOW IN CASE THEY NEED SOME MAINTENANCE AS THEY
WILL BE GETTING A WORKOUT WITH THESE HOT TEMPERATURES. WHEN
LOOKING AT THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES, THERE IS CURRENTLY A
15-25% CHANCE THAT THE RENO-TAHOE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SETS A
NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THEIR
CALENDAR DATES (CURRENT RECORDS BEING 103F ON 7/13 AND 105F ON
7/14 FOR REFERENCE). PLEASE PREPARE NOW AND CHECK OUT SOME HEAT
SAFETY TIPS AT WEATHER.GOV/HEAT. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE OR BORDER SEE A ~15% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 9/22Z-10/03Z. MOST AREA TERMINALS SEE
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH KMMH SEEING UP TO
AROUND 30 KTS. AREA WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START TO DIMINISH
AROUND 10/03-05Z. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, RAISING
POTENTIAL DENSITY ALTITUDE ISSUES FOR AIRCRAFT. -078
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NV SEEING A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH (WIND
PRONE AREAS SEEING UP TO AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE) AND MINIMUM RH
VALUES BETWEEN 5-15% ARE FORECAST WITHIN THE AREA. AREAS CLOSEST
TO THE OR BORDER SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE (~15%) FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES LOOK TO ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30-35% WITHIN WESTERN NV
TONIGHT. LESSER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW WHICH MAY PREVENT
THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA FROM BEING MET THOUGH MINIMUM
RH VALUES LOOK TO BE DOWN TO AROUND 10%.
INCREASED WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE IN FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT IT WILL BE DRY AND HOT WITH VALLEY AREAS WITHIN THE REGION
REACHING AND SURPASSING THE 100 DEGREE MARK STARTING ON SATURDAY
AND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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