171
FXUS65 KREV 270842
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
142 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL, STRONG OUTFLOWS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING WEEK
WITH A POTENTIAL UPTICK IN STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS OF WARM WEATHER AND BREEZY
AFTERNOONS TO END THE MONTH.
DISCUSSION
WE EXPERIENCED ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN
0.50-0.75", WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH, AND HAIL UP TO 0.75".
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FROM AROUND NOON TO 7 PM,
IMPACTING SIMILAR LOCATIONS AS SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WITH LESS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND AN AIRMASS THAT HAS TRENDED DRIER, STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS STORM CHANCES TO 40-50% FOR FAR WESTERN NV,
INCLUDING THE GREATER RENO AREA AND TAHOE BASIN. WESTERN LASSEN
ALSO HAD A 40-50% CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY AS WELL. THESE STORM
CHANCES DECREASE FOR OTHER AREAS, WITH GENERALLY A 10-30% IN THE
INNER BASIN AND FAR NORTHWEST NV.
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY, WE STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR HAIL UP TO
0.75", AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS
MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE W NV BASIN AND RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR DESERT SINKS AND PLAYAS. PWATS
REMAIN BETWEEN 0.6-0.7", BUT FASTER STORM MOTIONS WILL HELP CURB
MOST FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, WE'RE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A DEEP
HEMISPHERIC THROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THUNDERSTORMS
DON'T GO AWAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH DAILY 15-35% CHANCES FOR
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW A UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, BUT STILL REMAIN 2-4
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LAST WEEK OF JULY AND FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. OVERALL, WE'LL SEE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80F AND
90F FOR SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA COMMUNITIES, RESPECTIVELY.
-MCKELLAR
AVIATION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (30-50% CHANCE) AT KTRK-KTVL AND KRNO-KCXP-KMEV BETWEEN
20Z AND 02Z. EXPECT STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 40+ KTS, SMALL HAIL,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING CIGS/VIS TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT 10-30%
CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE INNER-BASIN TODAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
BLOWING DUST IMPACTS TO KNFL-KLOL-KHTH AMONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
T-STORM IMPACTS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, WITH CHANCES BETWEEN
10-25% ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND TAHOE BASIN.
-MCKELLAR
FIRE WEATHER
A BRIEF DRYING TREND WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO
MEAN DRY LIGHTNING BECOMES MORE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED STORMS.
OTHERWISE, STORMS TODAY STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR HAIL UP TO
0.75" AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
-MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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