545
FXUS65 KREV 272049
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
149 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
* INCREASED WINDS MAY ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND 9 PM PDT TONIGHT. THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE FROM LASSEN COUNTY
INTO THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR N WASHOE COUNTY WHERE 30-50% ODDS
EXIST. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS ACROSS THE RENO/SPARKS METRO AND
THE QUAD COUNTY COMMUNITIES WHERE T-STORM ODDS ARE 20-40%. THIS
SECONDARY AREA IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS A BELT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
RESIDES SOUTH OF I-80, WHICH MAY DISCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT IN THE NORTHERN REGIME WHERE PWATS VARY
FROM 0.5-0.7", SUGGESTING THAT HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING IS
MOST PROBABLE WITH STORMS IN NE CALIFORNIA TO THE OR BORDER. FARTHER
SOUTH, A DRIER ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL AND
FAVOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS MAY
PRODUCE BLOWING DUST NEAR DESERT SINKS AND PLAYAS IN THE W NV BASIN
AND RANGE. SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY
MATURE STORM TODAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY FEATURES ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT FURTHER DRYING WILL LOWER CHANCES TO
10-30%.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, REPLENISHING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS ALSO HINTING AT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH IT'S
SUSPECTED THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE LOWS PASSAGE. A
DRYING TREND LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AFTER WEDNESDAY, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEVOID OF
HEATWAVES AS DAYTIME HIGHS HOVER AROUND 80F AND 90F IN THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, RESPECTIVELY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE PASSAGE
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH IF MATERIALIZES, WOULD INCREASE
AFTERNOON BREEZES AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS NEXT WEEKEND.
-SALAS
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KRNO-KCXP-KMEV THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND 03-04Z. CHANCES OF STORMS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT -- MAINLY EAST OF SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRENDS UPWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES PREVAIL.
-SALAS
FIRE WEATHER
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT LIGHTNING IGNITIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN, ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS REDUCED
TODAY AND MONDAY AS STORM COVERAGE/LIGHTNING DENSITY IS LIMITED. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSAGE AROUND MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CHANCES INCREASE TO
30-50%. TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR DRY
LIGHTNING, BUT COVERAGE IS FAVORED TO BE GREATEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN
STORMS TRANSITION TO THE WETTER SIDE. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OF
NOCTURNAL LIGHTNING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
THIS A LOWER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO CONTINGENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA.
A DRYING TREND WILL MITIGATE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AFTER WEDNESDAY
WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. A
STRONGER TROUGH MAY ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND,
WHICH WOULD INCREASE AFTERNOON BREEZES AND ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS.
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS, ANY HOLDOVER LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS MAY FLARE-UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED WINDS.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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