605
FXUS65 KREV 280941
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
* WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
* INCREASED WINDS MAY ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
THAT WAS QUITE AN EVENTFUL NIGHT FOR THOSE IN THE RENO AREA. AN
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM MOVED OVER RENO AND DROPPED 0.5" TO 1.1" OF
RAIN, AND HAIL UP TO 1" IN DIAMETER. WE HAD ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO
FLOODING, ROCKSLIDES, FLIGHT DIVERSIONS AND DELAYS, AND POWER
OUTAGES. WE APPRECIATE ALL OF YOUR STORM REPORTS DURING THIS STORM
AND HOPE EVERYBODY STAYED SAFE!
WE'LL HAVE SIMILAR STORM CHANCES TODAY ACROSS WESTERN NV AND
NORTHEASTERN CA. CENTERED OVER DOUGLAS AND LYON COUNTIES, THERE'S
A 25-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, THEN ANOTHER 15-30% CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPANNING FROM NORTHEASTERN CA UP THROUGH NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY NEAR THE OR BORDER. SURROUNDING CITIES LIKE RENO,
CARSON CITY, MINDEN, AND FALLON CAN'T BE RULED OUT TODAY EITHER
WITH A 15-20% CHANCE OF GETTING A THUNDERSTORM.
LOOKING THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR WESTERN NV, THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SUCH THAT WE HAVE AROUND 900-1100 J/KG
OF CAPE, 1400 J/KG OF DCAPE, RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
INVERTED-V PROFILES, AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THIS,
I'D EXPECT SIMILAR IMPACTS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS LIKE SMALL
HAIL, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WE DIDN'T SEE
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND YESTERDAY AND I EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL. GUSTS AROUND THE STORMS TODAY MAY GET UP
TO 40-45 MPH.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION, GIVING
OUR AREA DAILY STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
CAMS ARE ALSO HINTING AT SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN
NORTHEASTERN CA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. I DON'T
EXPECT THOSE SHOWERS TO BE VERY INTENSE. HOWEVER WE'LL MAINTAIN A
10-15% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING. AFTER WEDNESDAY, WE START TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KRNO/KCXP/KMEV/KNFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND 03-04Z. EXPECT
OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 35+ KTS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING CIGS/VIS TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRENDS UPWARD FOR MOST OF THE SAME AREAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WESTERLY AFTERNOON BREEZES
PREVAIL.
-JUSTIN/SALAS
FIRE WEATHER
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT LIGHTNING IGNITIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING IS REDUCED
TODAY AS STORM COVERAGE/LIGHTNING DENSITY IS LIMITED. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE AROUND MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CHANCES INCREASE TO 30-50%.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR DRY LIGHTNING,
BUT COVERAGE IS FAVORED TO BE GREATEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN STORMS
TRANSITION TO THE WETTER SIDE. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OF NOCTURNAL
LIGHTNING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN
CA.
A DRYING TREND WILL MITIGATE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS STARTING
THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS EACH
AFTERNOON. A STRONGER TROUGH MAY ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD INCREASE AFTERNOON BREEZES AND
ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS, ANY
HOLDOVER LIGHTNING IGNITIONS MAY FLARE-UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASED WINDS.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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