585
FXUS65 KREV 310915
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
215 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE TODAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-80, THEN NEAR THE OR BORDER ON FRIDAY.
* A DRYING TREND RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON WINDS BOTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
* WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ITS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSIST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK PER SEVERAL
MEMBERS OF THE HREF AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE OR BORDER
ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY, WARNER MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTH WASHOE
COUNTY WITH A 30-60% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN HAZARDS
CONTINUE TO BE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN,
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS OF 40-50+ MPH. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN LOW SPOTS NEAR MOUNTAIN AREAS.
ALSO SOME BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE OVER PERSHING CO WITH OUTFLOWS
MOVING EASTWARD. SO, ROADS EAST OF PLAYAS OR DRY LAKES MAY SEE
SOME DUST CHANNELS OR WALLS OF DUST.
STORM CHANCES PERSIST ON FRIDAY, BUT DROP TO 10-20% FOR THE SAME
REGION LIKE TODAY. WE SHOULD EXPECT SIMILAR HAZARDS, BUT ALSO
THERE WILL BE A LOWER PROBABILITY AS WE LOSE PLENTY OF THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. FOR THIS WEEKEND, STORM CHANCES ARE NULL
OR UP TO 10% CLOSE TO THE OR BORDER, AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE CORE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS KIND OF MOISTURE STARVED. I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE SIERRA,
BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 5%.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS DEEPER AND
MOISTURE STARVED AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THEREFORE, IF IT IS NOT
BRINGING MUCH RAIN, THEN IT BRINGS WIND. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
TO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH A 40-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 30 MPH
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LOSE SOME INTENSITY MONDAY BEHIND OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, BUT STILL BE ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE
WEEK. FIRE CONCERNS RETURN ON SUNDAY, BUT MORE ABOUT THAT ON THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR LAKE
WIND ADVISORIES WITH THOSE WINDS. STAY TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY. THEN THE EXPANSION OF AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP
BACK TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. WESTERN NV
AND NE CA AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WHILE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
-HC
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS OF
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS (15-30% CHANCE) REDUCING
VIS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KSVE TO KLOL AFTER 20Z.
HIGHER CHANCES CLOSE TO THE OR BORDER. MAIN HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTS TO 35-45 KTS, SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS
ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02-03Z.
STORMS RETURN TO THE SAME AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH A
10-20% CHANCE.
-HC
FIRE WEATHER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER, THEY PERSIST IN
AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK WITH A 10-30%.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR THE OR BORDER WITH A 30-60% PROBABILITY. THIS ALSO MEANS
THAT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY
OF STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THAT AREA IS THAT PWATS ARE HIGHER UP
NORTH CLOSE TO 0.75". SO, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY
HELP INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW FIRES. STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION.
A DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS RESTORED THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
DEEPER TROUGH SWINGS BUT WITHOUT A DECENT MOISTURE FETCH. THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF STORMS, BUT WINDS RETURN.
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
40-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 30 MPH ON SUNDAY. PROBABILITIES DROP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THOSE WINDS COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV,
PORTIONS OF EASTERN LASSEN AND MONO CO. WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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