683
FXUS65 KREV 010927
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
227 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND
STORMS SEEN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON WINDS SUNDAY, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
* WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
FOR TODAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA. WITH THIS SETUP ALOFT,
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE HIGHER END CHANCES BEING ALONG THE OR
BORDER. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW
OPENING AROUND 2-3 PM PDT AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. IT
ALSO SHOWS SOME STRAY SHOWERS REDEVELOPING IN EASTERN PERSHING
COUNTY GOING INTO THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HOURS. WHILE STORMS
DO NOT LOOK BECOME SEVERE, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS
MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE CWA DO EXPECT
TO STAY ON THE DRY SIDE FOR TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE VALLEY
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
TODAY WHILE THE SIERRA COMMUNITIES HAVE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S
IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S
RANGE ARE SEEN FOR THE VALLEY AREAS WITH THE SIERRA PORTIONS
HAVING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S RANGE.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF 10-20% CHANCES OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION NEAR SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. SIMILAR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO THOSE SEEN TODAY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. BUT THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN COMES ON
SUNDAY WHEN FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. WITH THIS FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH ABOVE, THE REGION MAY SEE A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE BRINGING SOME INCREASED WINDS DURING THE
DAY. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW AROUND A 30-60% CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH IN WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE WIND-RELATED IMPACTS FOR RECREATION AND TRAVEL, AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHICH ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
WHILE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GOING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS DAY'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MONDAY'S
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE VALLEYS HAVING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S AND THE SIERRA PORTIONS HAVING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S RANGE. BUT BEYOND MONDAY, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CWA SEEING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE SIERRA PORTIONS BEING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREA
TERMINALS SEEING TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20-25 KTS STARTING AROUND 01/20-22Z. PORTIONS OF THE REGION NORTH OF
I-80 SEE A 15-25% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
BETWEEN 01/22Z-02/06Z WITH AREAS CLOSEST TO THE OR BORDER SEEING
THE HIGHER END CHANCES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SUNDAY'S FORECAST CALLING FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF INCREASED AREA GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS AND SLIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (15-20%) FOR PORTIONS CLOSEST TO THE OR BORDER. -078
FIRE WEATHER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-25%) ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WITH THE HIGHER END CHANCES BEING
CLOSER TO THE OR BORDER. THE LATEST SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS
MORNING DOES HIGHLIGHT AREAS WITH A POTENTIAL ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT BEING ALONG AND NORTH OF US-50 FOR TODAY WITH
AREAS ALONG THE OR BORDER SEEING THAT DRY LIGHTNING THREAT ON
SATURDAY.
GUSTIER WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO AROUND 10-15% ALLOWING POTENTIAL
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF AN HOUR OR 2 OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITHIN WESTERN NV
AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE AN INCREASE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS SEEN IN NEW MODEL FORECAST DATA. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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