959
FXUS65 KREV 292058
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
158 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT REDUCED
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.
* AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE MAY LOCALLY IMPACT VISIBILITY AND AIR
QUALITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO FIRES WEST OF THE CREST.
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* LINGERING MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM SOUTHERN NV
THROUGH EASTERN NV IS KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE MUCH LESS
ORGANIZED AND WEAKER THAN THE STORMS WE DEALT WITH EARLIER THIS
WEEK, BUT STILL CAN BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STORM
CORE, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. GREATEST
COVERAGE IS THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA (FOR MORE
DETAILS CHECK IN WITH OUR FRIENDS TO THE EAST, NWS ELKO), WITH
ONLY A 10-15% CHANCE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED.
* WE ARE DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH DO KEEP STORM CHANCES IN
PLACE FOR MONO/ALPINE COUNTIES (10-15%), WITH A STRAY CELL
HAVING A LOW POTENTIAL (5% CHANCE) TO DRIFT INTO THE TAHOE BASIN
OR DOUGLAS/SOUTHERN LYON CO. WE'LL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM,
BUT ONLY TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
* THE REGION IS ALSO SEEING IMPACTS FROM WILDFIRES BURNING ACROSS
THE WEST, BUT PRIMARILY THE SMOKE IS FROM THE GARNET FIRE, IN THE
SIERRA EAST OF FRESNO. MUCH OF THE LOWER LEVEL SMOKE AND AIR
QUALITY IMPACTS ARE BEING CONFINED TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SIERRA, WITH SOME DRIFTING INTO PORTIONS OF MONO CO. HAZE IS BEING
OBSERVED ALOFT THROUGH OTHER PORTIONS OF CA/NV, BUT ISN'T BRINGING
AIR QUALITY IMPACTS. FOR THE LATEST: FIRE.AIRNOW.GOV.
* HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK, WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
ANOMALIES FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING PWATS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MONSOONAL SURGE WE SAW EARLIER
THIS WEEK HAD VALUES 200-300% OF NORMAL, SO THIS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. THE OTHER FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH IS A
COMPACT LOW SITTING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST TUESDAY, WHICH
LIFTS NORTHWARD THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR INLAND THIS FEATURE
WILL PROGRESS. IF IT SCOOTS ALONG THE COAST, THERE WILL BE
LESSER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAN IF IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER INLAND. AT THIS POINT, CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS A 15%
CHANCE WE'LL SEE GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM AN EASTERLY
PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE. IN ANY EVENT, BE PREPARED FOR THE
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, EXACT
LOCATIONS AND DETAILS TBD.
* EVERYONE STAY SAFE OUT THERE AND ENJOY THIS UNOFFICIAL END OF
SUMMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND! -DAWN
AVIATION
* SMOKE FILTERING IN FROM THE GARNET FIRE MAY BRING PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT KMMH, ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
PRIMARILY SLANTWISE WITH HAZE ALOFT.
* STORMS ARE FIRING OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA, THOUGH ISOLATED CELLS (10-15%
CHANCE) REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN SIERRA, TAHOE
BASIN, AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA AS WELL. THESE WILL
BE PULSE STORMS, WITH SMALL CORES AND GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED AND
WEAKER IN NATURE.
* DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH A 10-15% CHANCE FOR A STRAY
STORM TO FORM IN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. STORM CHANCES EXPAND ONCE
AGAIN NEXT WEEK. -DAWN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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