565
FXUS65 KREV 300828
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
128 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
* AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE MAY LOCALLY IMPACT VISIBILITY AND AIR
QUALITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO FIRES WEST OF THE CREST AND
IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO AROUND AVERAGE
READINGS TODAY AND AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY.
WE'LL DRY OUT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. BUT, WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND OROGRAPHICS, WE WILL STILL HAVE A 10-15%
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT AREAS IN MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES, WITH A LOWER 5-10% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
TAHOE AREA.
* THE REGION IS ALSO SEEING IMPACTS FROM WILDFIRES BURNING ACROSS
THE WEST. AS OF NOW, SMOKE AND HAZE IS PRIMARILY FROM THE GARNET
FIRE IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. BUT A NEW FIRE START IN NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY WEST OF GERLACH WILL LIKELY ADD MORE SMOKE AND
HAZE TO THE MIX TODAY. FOR THE LATEST ON AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS,
VISIT FIRE.AIRNOW.GOV. AS LONG AS FIRES ARE BURNING ACROSS THE
WEST, WE'LL CONTEND WITH ADDITIONAL SMOKE AND HAZE IMPACTS
ACROSS THE AREA.
* FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, MODEL ENSEMBLES
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW 90S IN WESTERN NV,
EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY, AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MONO COUNTY. THE
SIERRA WILL ENJOY COMFORTABLE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH MID 60S TO
LOW 70S HIGHER UP. LOOKING AT THE LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO FILTER BACK NORTH INTO THE
AREA. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS HIGH PRESSURE SETUP IS HIGH. THE
OTHER UPPER AIR FEATURE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
WILL BE A NORTHWARD DRIFT OF A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST.
IF THE LOW IS MORE INLAND, WE WILL SEE MORE CONVECTION COMPARED
TO IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST OR SPEEDS UP. AT THE
MOMENT, GIVEN THE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MAKE A RETURN STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY, BUT
MORE SO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* SMOKE FILTERING IN FROM THE GARNET FIRE MAY BRING PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT KMMH. A NEW FIRE START IN NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY MAY ALSO BRING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NV. ANY OTHER RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WILL BE
PRIMARILY SLANTWISE WITH HAZE ALOFT.
* DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH A 10-15% CHANCE FOR A
STRAY STORM TO FORM IN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. STORM CHANCES
EXPAND ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK. -MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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