036
FXUS65 KREV 310711
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1211 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN
MONO, MINERAL, AND FAR SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
* AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE MAY LOCALLY IMPACT VISIBILITY AND AIR
QUALITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO FIRES IN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN UT AND NORTHERN AZ,
OUR WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
END UP AROUND 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LAST DAY OF
AUGUST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A 10-25% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN MONO, MINERAL, ALPINE, SOUTHERN DOUGLAS
AND FAR SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. MONDAY TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH LOW TO MID-90S IN WESTERN NV,
EASTERN LASSEN, AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MONO COUNTY. THE EASTERN
SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL ENJOY MOSTLY 80S, AND AROUND 70S HIGHER
UP. MONDAY STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 15% IN THE
EASTERN SIERRA.
* THE NEXT PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL IN STORE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER HIGH IN THIS CURRENT
LOCATION, MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION.
PWATS ARE AROUND 0.5-0.7", WHICH IS AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TUESDAY IS STILL 20-40% AREAWIDE, WITH AROUND A 50%
CHANCE IN THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF US-50. THE REMAINING
WILDCARD IN THIS PATTERN IS A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH OFF THE CA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING
THIS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. BUT, GIVEN INVERTED-V PROFILES AND FASTER MOVING CELLS
THE RISK OF HYBRID THUNDERSTORMS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
HIGHER, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. STORM CHANCES DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A DAILY 10-25% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE ONLY REMAINING ISSUE FOR THE AREA
WILL BE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM ONGOING FIRES IN NORTHWEST CA AND IN
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. -MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* SMOKE FILTERING IN FROM THE GARNET FIRE MAY BRING PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT KMMH. THE BUFFALO FIRE IN NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY AND FIRES IN NORTHERN CA MAY ALSO BRING VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA. ANY
OTHER RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WILL BE PRIMARILY SLANTWISE DUE
TO HAZE ALOFT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH A 10-25% CHANCE FOR A STRAY
STORM TO FORM IN MONO/MINERAL/SOUTHERN DOUGLAS/LYON COUNTIES,
IMPACTING KMMH. STORM CHANCES EXPAND ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
* HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDES MAY BECOME A PROBLEM IN WESTERN NV TODAY
AND MONDAY.
-MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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