177
FXUS65 KREV 032217
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
317 PM PDT WED SEP 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SIERRA AND THE NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE.
A LOW RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTS SOUTH OF I-80.
* AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE CONTINUE TO LOCALLY IMPACT VISIBILITY AND
AIR QUALITY DUE TO FIRES IN THE SIERRA.
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE HAS AN
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN OR ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
CONTINUE OVER THE CWA. GOING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LOW TRAVELING SLOWLY UP THE OR COAST. WITH THIS
SETUP ALOFT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CURRENTLY SEEING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS (NORTHERN WASHOE, PERSHING, AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES). SOME
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION ALSO LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA PORTION OF
THE CWA WITH A 15-35% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR TODAY, STORM THREATS WOULD
INCLUDE SMALL HAIL, DRY LIGHTNING OUTSIDE OR RAIN CORES, GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH, AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE SOME
POTENTIAL BLOWING DUST NEAR DESERT AREAS OF WESTERN NV WHICH WOULD
REDUCE VISIBILITY. A MARGINAL RISK (5%) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EXISTS TODAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80, SO FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH A LOW PROBABILITY TODAY. MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH CAMS SHOWING SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN WASHOE AND PERSHING
COUNTIES GOING INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY.
SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE CA WILDFIRES PARTICULARLY FROM THE GARNET
WILDFIRE CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE REGION. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL DEPICTS WILDFIRE SMOKE COMING INTO ALPINE AND MONO
COUNTY TONIGHT THAT TRAVELS UP THE SIERRA AND THEN SPREADS
EASTWARD INTO THE SIERRA FRONT BY THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHILE NOT ANTICIPATING THE SMOKE TO SEVERELY REDUCE AREA
VISIBILITIES, PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AIR QUALITY
CONDITIONS ON AIRNOW.GOV ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS OR
ARE SENSITIVE TO POOR AIR QUALITY.
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THURSDAY'S CHANCES LOOK TO BE
LESSER THAN TODAY'S WITH A 10-20% CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHER END CHANCES BEING SOUTH OF US-50. FRIDAY'S CHANCES LOOK TO
BE MOSTLY IN WESTERN NV RANGING FROM AROUND 15% IN AREAS ALONG
THE CA/NV BORDER UP TO AROUND 45% IN EASTERN PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. THE WPC MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PERSISTS ON BOTH DAYS AS WELL SO THERE IS AROUND A 5% PROBABILITY
THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE REGION LOOKS TO DRY OUT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA AND PUSHING THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES EXPECT TO COOL WHILE WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE
A BIT AS A RESULT. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW THE SIERRA
RIDGES HAVING A 20-30% CHANCE OF HAVING WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH
ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK, THE EXTENDED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SHOWS SOME SIERRA COMMUNITIES NEARING THE
FREEZING MARK BY MIDWEEK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECASTED
HIGH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS WHILE THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. IN
ADDITION, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO LOOK TO RETURN BY TUESDAY
THOUGH THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY THOUGH THE SIERRA AND NV BASIN AND RANGE SEE
CHANCES (~15-35%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
4/03Z. PERSHING AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES MAY SEE CHANCES (~15-
25%) FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH 4/06Z. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS OR OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTING UP TO
AROUND 45 MPH (CAUSING POTENTIAL BLOWING DUST IN WESTERN NV) IF THEY
OCCUR TODAY. OTHERWISE, SMOKE FROM CA WILDFIRES MAY FILTER INTO
ALPINE AND MONO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT THAT MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
WHILE SLANTWISE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED WITH HAZE WITHIN THE
REGION. KTRK MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 3/09Z-15Z ONCE AGAIN
THAT WILL CAUSE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REGION CONTINUE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE AREA DRIES OUT OVER
THE WEEKEND. -078
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY DECREASES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO
AROUND 10-40%. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING AWAY FROM RAIN
CORES, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUES.
THIS WEEKEND, A COOLER AND BREEZIER PATTERN RETURNS WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. THIS PATTERN COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONCERNS IN MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND OVER NW NV AND
NE CA IF IT WERE TO PERSIST. CURRENTLY, NBM GUIDANCE KEEPS A
30-60% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THESE WINDS COULD
FAN OUT ANY NEW HOLDOVER FIRES FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
-JIM/HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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