114
FXUS65 KREV 121926
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1226 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF US-50.
* THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SUNDAY,
FAVORING NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, ALONG WITH
INCREASING BREEZES.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY HAS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE CLOUD DECK IN THE
SIERRA BECOMES THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING
SOME CONVECTION IN PORTIONS SOUTH OF US-50 AND EAST OF US-95.
THE CLOUD DECK MAY INHIBIT SOME OF THE CONVECTION IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAMS AGREE WITH THIS AS
THEY ARE SHOWING MOST OF THE CONVECTION FOCUSED SOUTH OF US-50.
MONO COUNTY BEING THE PRIMARY AREA WITH A 20-45% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TAHOE BASIN AND THE FAR WESTERN SIERRA
FRONT HAVE ONLY A 5-15% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AREAS EAST OF US 95 IN THE NV BASIN AND
RANGE REMAIN AT 15-30% CHANCE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STORM
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH, SMALL HAIL,
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
BY TOMORROW, THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA, AND
REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS BRINGS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, STARTING GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTH THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THIS BREAK WON'T LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY, AS
WE ARE IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING MAINLY FAR NORTHERN NV AND CA. SO, IMPACTS
FOR US SHOULD BE MINIMAL. IT IS ALSO A QUICK SYSTEM, AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. STILL EXPECT INCREASING
WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
NORTH OF I-80 AND OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES/WEST SLOPES. ONLY A 5-15%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THAT AFTERNOON IN
FAR NORTHERN WASHOE AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY NEAR THE OR BORDER.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE TAKING
OVER. THEREFORE, EXPECT A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURN BACK TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY, AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO RETURN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS A
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TRIES TO GET ESTABLISHED AND
BRING SOME MOISTURE IN. HOWEVER, THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT.
-HC
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO LOWER VIS. STORM CHANCES REMAIN AT A 15-35% IN AREAS SOUTH
OF US-50. THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCE IF FOR KMMH AROUND 35%. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALSO FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KTRK AFTER 8Z THIS
EVENING, EARLIER IF IT RAINS TODAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10 KTS, EXCEPT FOR KMMH WITH MORE VARIABLE WINDS. ALSO GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED WITH STORMS BETWEEN 21Z-02Z
FOR ALL SITES.
CHANCES FOR STORMS AND INCREASING WINDS RETURN ON SUNDAY.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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