653
FXUS65 KREV 130827
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
127 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS SUNDAY, FAVORING NORTHEAST
CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, ALONG WITH INCREASING BREEZES.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO CA-NV TODAY AS THE
UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL END THE
PRECIP CHANCES REGIONWIDE, AND BRING ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES OF WARMING
COMPARED TO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE 80 DEGREES FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND RETURNING TO THE 70S NEAR THE SIERRA.
WHILE AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
FAR NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING A FASTER
MOVEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE DATA, FAVORING THESE SHOWER
CHANCES (15-25%) FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WE'LL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH
THESE BREEZES MIXING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY. THIS
ISN'T SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY SUBSTANTIAL WIND EPISODE, WITH
VALLEY GUSTS MAINLY 25-30 MPH.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, A LARGER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO CA-NV, ALLOWING FOR A MORE NOTABLE WARMUP WITH
HIGHS RISING TO THE MID 80S-NEAR 90 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 80 DEGREES NEAR THE SIERRA.
LATER NEXT WEEK, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST IS PROJECTED
TO DRIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST, POSSIBLY MOVING INLAND. THIS COULD
BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER AS SOON AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM'S TRACK, SO AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AT THE MAIN TERMINALS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AREAS OF FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS/VIS FOR KTRK THIS MORNING MAINLY BETWEEN 10-16Z. FOG
CHANCES DECREASE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AM WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS TODAY
FOLLOWED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH GUSTS BELOW 20 KT. FOR
SUNDAY, SW-W WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT AT FL100/RIDGE LEVEL AND
20-25 KT MAINLY AFTER 19Z AT THE MAIN TERMINALS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED LEE SIDE TURBULENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MINOR LLWS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SOME OF THESE RIDGE LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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