672
FXUS65 KREV 131924
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1224 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS SUNDAY, FAVORING NORTHEAST
CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, ALONG WITH INCREASING BREEZES.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US-50.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ALONG MOUNTAIN RIDGES. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TODAY. THIS IS ALL THANKS TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS JUST MOVED IN. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGS FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACNW TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHOE
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER TOMORROW. INCREASING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN RIDGES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND NORTHERN NV WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO HAVE A 10-30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHOE BASED ON THE HREF.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE AREA HAS LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.
STARTING ON MONDAY, ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. IT
REMAINS AROUND THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE IT CONTINUES
ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW WARMING TREND PREVAILS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BOUNCE BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AND JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
BY WEDNESDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER, MODELS START TO
DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. SO, WE ARE UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE DETAILS.
ANYWAY, THE OBSERVED TREND FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
INDICATES A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON WINDS WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 MPH, AND LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US-50. SO, IMPACTS APPEAR
MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT, BUT MORE DETAILS TO COME IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
-HC
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO HAVE A 10-30% CHANCE OF OCCURRING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON NEAR THE OR BORDER LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO VIS REDUCTIONS. FOG MAY RETURN TO KTRK AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB, BUT BECOME FROM THE WEST
5-10 KTS BETWEEN 21Z-03Z BOTH DAYS. MINOR LLWS AND TURBULENCE
CONCERNS ARE LIKELY STARTING AFTER 06Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR AREA
MOUNTAINS.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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