361
FXUS65 KREV 140913
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
213 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN TODAY, FAVORING NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV, ALONG WITH INCREASING BREEZES.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK ALONG WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN AGAIN AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US-50.
DISCUSSION
THE LATEST UPPER AIR RAP ANALYSIS FOR THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CWA
BETWEEN A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OR COAST TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER
RIDGE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
GOING THROUGH THE DAY, MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH OR AND STAY NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS
OCCURRING ALOFT, PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE OR BORDER SEE A
10-20% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS
TO STAY DRY, THE CWA AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO HAVE SOME INCREASED
BREEZES TODAY. AREA WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20 MPH OUT OF THE
WEST WITH THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES SEEING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY THOUGH THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE
WILL BE IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE OR BORDER THEY ACTUALLY MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGE BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATION
SIERRA COMMUNITIES HAVE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S IN
THE FORECAST.
GOING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY PATTERN TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE CWA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING UPWARD EACH DAY, DAYTIME HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE NUMBERS BEING IN
THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS WHILE THE
SIERRA COMMUNITIES SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S RANGE.
ON THURSDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING
TOWARDS SOMETHING WETTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACNW AND PUSHING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. SOME EXTENDED
MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE REGION
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BE FROM REMNANTS OF A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM DURING THIS WEEK. WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, TEMPERATURES DO LOOK
TO TAKE A COOLING TREND BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF US-50 SEEING A 25-35% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 45%
FOR THE UPPER LIMIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE SPREADING MORE
NORTHWARD AS WELL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS GOING FORWARD WHEN DETAILS BECOME
CLEARER AS THE END OF THE WEEK DRAWS CLOSER. -078
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAIL AT MOST AREA TAF SITES TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE AT KTRK WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO STAY DRY THOUGH
PORTIONS NEAR THE OR BORDER SEE A 10-20% OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM BETWEEN 14/12-18Z. AREA WINDS GENERALLY ARE FORECAST TO
GUST OUT OF THE WEST AND UP TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BETWEEN
14/20Z-15/05Z. MINOR LLWS AND TURBULENCE CONCERNS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A RESULT ESPECIALLY NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS. A DRY
PATTERN ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. -078
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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