563
FXUS65 KREV 141946
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1246 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON BREEZES.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
* THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
SOUTH OF US-50 ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
THE CLOUD FIELD THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED NORTH TOWARDS NE CA
AND WASHOE COUNTY NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRASTICALLY DECREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON BELOW
5%. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A FARTHER NORTHERN AND QUICKER
TRACK KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN OREGON. WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIDGES AND THE WEST SLOPES
OF MOUNTAINS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH WITH A 30-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
30 MPH NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE, MAINLY BETWEEN 4-7 PM THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTING ACTION WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S WESTERN NV/NE CA, AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
SIERRA COMMUNITIES. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WE MAY START TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN SIERRA.
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO PULL SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WITH PWS INCREASING INTO THE 0.5-0.7 INCH RANGE.
MOST OF THE AREA HAS A 10-30% CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES
DOWN IN MONO/MINERAL COUNTY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES APPEAR TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS
SYSTEM WELL, SO OUR CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HAZARDS, LOCATION
AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS TO GET A BETTER PICTURE OF HOW THIS WEEKEND WILL
GO. JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT IT IS TRENDING KIND OF WET, COOLER, AND
WITH SOME INCREASED WINDS.
-HC
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THERE ARE ONLY TWO
EXCEPTIONS, A SHOWER OR A STORM WITH A 5% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
OR LESS, MAY CAUSE VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE OR BORDER, AND PATCHY FOG IN KTRK BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY GUSTS IN THE 15-25 KTS
RANGE. MINOR LLWS AND TURBULENCE CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS.
-HC
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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