038
FXUS65 KREV 161925
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1225 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM, SUNNY, AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE GARNET FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PARTS OF MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES TODAY.
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE UPCOMING SHIFT IN THE PATTERN FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM MARIO.
WARM, DRY, AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE. PLAN ON UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
FOR LOWER NV VALLEYS AND LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA. ONLY WEATHER CONCERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATED TO THE HAZE/SMOKE FROM THE ONGOING
GARNET FIRE. PER LATEST AIR QUALITY SENSORS AND HREF SMOKE
SIMULATION, AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE BANKED UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
EASTERN SIERRA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE IN A LINE DOWN TO MAMMOTH LAKES. ALBEIT THE DENSITY OF THE
SMOKE WILL BE MUCH LESS BY THE TIME IT INFILTRATES EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE.AIRNOW.GOV FOR THE LATEST AIR
QUALITY.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL STARTS
IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AND SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
FOR NOW, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING/LOCATION DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SIMULATIONS. FOR NOW, PLAN ON COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. PRIMARY
CONCERNS WILL BE FOR WETTING RAINS, SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING. HAVE A CONTINGENCY PLAN IF YOU PLAN ON
BEING OUTDOORS IN THE BACKCOUNTRY LATE THIS WEEK!
-EDAN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT N/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR ALL
WESTERN NEVADA AND SIERRA TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KMMH REMAINS
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WITH PERIODS OF SMOKE/HAZE IMPACTING VISIBILITY.
LATEST SMOKE SIMULATIONS SHOW LIMITED SMOKE INFILTRATION THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME REDUCTION IN SLANTWISE
VISIBILITY.
-EDAN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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