253  
FXUS65 KREV 020852  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
152 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK,  
WITH FRIDAY SEEING THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES.  
 
* THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE TODAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.  
 
* DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
* FOR TODAY, LIGHT TO MODERATE, AT TIMES LOCALLY HEAVY, SHOWERS  
ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE  
SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A SLOW, SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD  
FRONT FOR MOST OF TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE  
EASTERN SIERRA, THE HREF HAS LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING, MAINLY  
FROM ALPINE COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO LASSEN COUNTY. ALSO DEPICTED  
IN THE HREF/CAMS IS A HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS SETTING UP AROUND  
THE LAKE TAHOE AREA INTO EASTERN PLUMAS COUNTY FROM AROUND 4-6  
AM THROUGH AROUND 2-4 PM. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT REACH INTO MONO  
COUNTY UNTIL AROUND 4-6 PM TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
AROUND 4-6 AM ON FRIDAY. FOR WESTERN NV, THE HREF/CAMS SHOW SOME  
LIGHT SPILLOVER SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG THE SIERRA  
FRONT/RENO METRO AREA, AS WELL AS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.  
PRECIPITATION IS THEN LIKELY IN THE RENO METRO AREA AND SIERRA  
FRONT FROM AROUND 1 PM TO AROUND 9 PM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE  
INTO THE INNER BASIN AND RANGES THROUGH 4-6 AM FRIDAY.  
 
* ALTHOUGH WE HAVE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN,  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS OF A THREAT GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY.  
BUT SOME COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 MPH, LIGHTNING, AND SMALL  
HAIL. WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG THE  
ADVANCING COLD FRONT, ANY AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING STORMS MAY  
SEE LOCALIZED AREAL FLOODING, WITH PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR THE  
LOCAL BURN SCARS OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS. FOR PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BLENDED NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50-70%  
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.50" OF PRECIPITATION FROM ALPINE COUNTY  
NORTH INTO PLUMAS COUNTY, INCLUDING LAKE LEVEL IN TAHOE. THERE  
IS A 50-60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.25" OF RAINFALL FOR THE SIERRA  
FRONT, RENO METRO AREA, AND INTO THE INNER BASIN MAINLY ALONG  
I-80. BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE HREF/CAMS HAVE LOCALLY  
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND 0.5-1.25" OF  
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NV.  
 
* FOR FRIDAY, THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY  
MORNING. BUT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,  
SCATTERED HIT/MISS SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN  
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL TO LOW 60S  
FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NV, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 FOR MOST  
SIERRA COMMUNITIES, BUT, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE  
SIERRA WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING. WITH THE MENTION OF COLD  
TEMPERATURES, WE DIDN'T FORGET THE SNOW. SNOW LEVELS START THIS  
MORNING AROUND 11,000 FEET, WITH THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE  
BEING RAIN. SNOW LEVELS BY THE EVENING WILL DROP TO AROUND  
9,500-10,000 FEET IN THE TAHOE AREA, TO AROUND 11,000 FEET IN  
MONO COUNTY. BY FRIDAY MORNING, SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 7,500-8,500  
FEET THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN SIERRA. IT'S NOT A BIG SNOW EVENT BY  
ANY MEANS, BUT THE FIRST DECENT SNOWFALL THIS FALL. TWO-DAY  
NBM/HREF TOTALS HAVE A MAJORITY OF THE SIERRA BETWEEN A TRACE TO  
1", WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2-4" IN MONO COUNTY (TIOGA  
PASS, SONORA PASS), AND 1-2" FOR MOUNT ROSE.  
 
* THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW  
DEEP THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL BE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IT WILL  
BRING TO THE AREA. -MCKELLAR  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
* GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THE  
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE FOR KTRK/KTVL AS SHRA AND -TSRA MAY REDUCE  
CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR OR IFR WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  
 
* LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR FOR WESTERN NV  
TERMINALS ARE LIKELY AFTER 18-20Z TO AROUND 10-12Z FRIDAY. LOW  
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS LEADING TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE SIERRA  
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
CONTINUE AREAWIDE INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
* WINDS ARE OVERALL LIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY, WITH SUSTAINED  
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS. -MCKELLAR  
 
 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  
 
 
 
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