327  
FXUS65 KREV 030858  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
158 AM PDT FRI OCT 3 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES  
INTO THE REGION.  
 
* TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK,  
WITH TODAY SEEING THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW  
ABOVE 8000 FT.  
 
* DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
* THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, WITH  
A CONTINUATION OF THE WET, COOL WEATHER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
CHURCHILL, PERSHING, AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHICH HAVE ONGOING  
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AROUND 5-7 AM, THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NV  
WILL HAVE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND 12-1 PM. AFTER  
THAT, THE HREF/CAMS ALL SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT  
WESTERN NV UNTIL AROUND 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE  
THE HIT/MISS VARIETY COMPARED TO THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL  
EXPERIENCED ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS TODAY WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE UP  
TO 0.01-0.10". BUT, WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND MINOR INSTABILITY  
IN PLACE, WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ISOLATED, 20% CHANCE  
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL BURSTS OF RAINFALL  
BETWEEN 0.10-0.20", SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN  
THREATS.  
 
* FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA, RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE  
ONGOING IN MONO COUNTY THROUGH AROUND 5-7 AM. THIS AREA WILL  
THEN SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 12 PM,  
FOLLOWED BY HIT/MISS SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. MEANWHILE,  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING FOR THE EASTERN  
SIERRA NORTH OF I-80 INTO LASSEN COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE  
SIERRA WILL THEN SEE HIT/MISS SHOWERS BY AROUND 10 AM TO 12 PM  
INTO THE EVENING. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN AND  
THICKNESSES DECREASING, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND  
8,000-9,000'. ONLY MINOR (1-3") ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, AND THE OVERALL IMPACTS  
WILL BE MINOR. BUT BE MINDFUL IF TRAVELING OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES  
TODAY AS YOU MAY EXPERIENCE WET, ICY ROADS.  
 
* THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH LONG-WAVE  
TROUGH PATTERN OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. IT WILL LEAVE OUR  
AREA UNDER A COOLER, NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SUNDAY. THE  
PRECIPITATION WILL END, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE  
COOLER SIDE. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BETWEEN 10-15  
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS A NOTE, THE COLDER AREAS OF THE SIERRA  
WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE MID-20S AND SOME OF THE COLDER AREAS IN  
WESTERN NV MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 32 DEGREES.  
 
* FOR THE LONG-TERM, ENSEMBLES HAVE A WEAK RETROGRADING LOW OVER  
THE WEST INTO TUESDAY. WE'LL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND TRENDING  
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPERATURES. INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF  
NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER  
THE WESTERN US/EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS MAY INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION  
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS  
LOW IN THE LONG-TERM PATTERN. -MCKELLAR  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
* SCATTERED HIT/MISS RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR FOR  
WESTERN NV TERMINALS ARE LIKELY AFTER 18-20Z THROUGH 03-06Z. FOR  
KTRK/KTVL, MVFR TO IFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS LEADING  
TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH AROUND 03-06Z. SNOW IS  
ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 8,000'. FOR KMMH, -RA IS  
LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 12-14Z, FOLLOWED BY MORE SCATTERED HIT/MISS  
SHOWERS BY 18-20Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS  
WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.  
 
* WINDS ARE OVERALL LIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY, WITH SUSTAINED  
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS. SOME MINOR TURBULENCE  
AND LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA  
TERMINALS. -MCKELLAR  
 
 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  
 
 
 
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