532  
FXUS65 KREV 050754  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
1254 AM PDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WITH  
DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
* A WARMING TREND ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH DRY  
WEATHER.  
 
* THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK,  
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
* FOR TODAY AND MONDAY, A LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER  
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US, WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG  
WEST COAST. WITH THIS PATTERN, WE'LL MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH NO PRECIPITATION. WE CAN EXPECT  
THE EASTERN SIERRA VALLEYS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S FOR LOW  
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE COLDER WESTERN NV VALLEYS FALLING TO  
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.  
 
* HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,  
WITH A RETURN TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-OCTOBER. WE'LL  
REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.  
 
* STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BY THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE 7-DAY  
FORECAST PERIOD NEXT SUNDAY. WHAT THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALL SHOWING  
IS A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA  
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE  
THEN MOVES INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND. WHERE THE ENSEMBLES START TO  
DIFFER IS IN THE TIMING, TRACK, AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW.  
THESE DIFFERENCES CAN MEAN EITHER COOL THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
WITH PRECIPITATION, OR DRY AND SEASONAL. BOTTOM LINE, KEEP  
INFORMED OF THE CHANGING FORECAST THIS WEEK. -MCKELLAR  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
 
* LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR FG/FZFG THROUGH 15Z FOR KTRK. OTHERWISE,  
ALL WESTERN NV AND EASTERN SIERRA TERMINALS CAN EXPECT VFR  
CONDITIONS.  
 
* WINDS ARE LIGHT TODAY FROM THE EAST, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15  
KTS. -MCKELLAR  
 
 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  
 
 
 
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